Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway
“The Great American Race” is back for the 59th time on Sunday at 2 P.M. ET at Daytona International Speedway. Last year’s edition featured the closest finish in NASCAR history as Denny Hamlin inched out, literally, Martin Truex Jr. to win the race by one one-hundredth of a second. This year’s Speed Week has already featured great showings in The Clash last Sunday, where the GPP lineup cashed, and in the Duels on Thursday night. Of course this is all just the lead up to the pageantry that is the 500 and the kickoff for the 2017 Monster Energy Cup Series.
The 2017 season doesn’t just come with a new Cup sponsor, there are also rule changes and a few new faces to concern ourselves with. Each race this season has will be divided into three stages of differing lengths, which will provide more chances for drivers to earn Cup points, and fantasy points, during the contests instead of just at the end. By finishing in the front of the pack at the end of each stage, drivers earn themselves coveted bonus points to count toward their standing in the Chase for the Cup playoff run. There are also new rules governing cars being worked on following crashes, which could result in more cars being taken off the track than in previous years. Aside from the rule changes, there are driver changes too. Daniel Suarez is taking over the number-19 ride for the retired Carl Edwards; Erik Jones will be in the number-77 car for Furniture Row Racing, joining Martin Truex Jr. to form a two-car team; Stewart-Haas Racing has switched to Fords from Chevys in addition to having Clint Bowyer move into the 14-car for the retired Tony Stewart.
In addition to the Draft Kings lineups that I provided last season, I will also be adding a lineup for the NASCAR Fantasy Live game, which is free to play on NASCAR.com, and can still get you prizes each week. There will also be a Streak To The Finish game pick each week in the hopes of successfully picking a racer to finish in the top-10 and keep our streak going. NASCAR Live scoring is different from Draft Kings by primarily including bonus points for top-10 finishes at the end of each race stage as well as bonus points for picking the winning driver (without them having to be on your roster) and the winning manufacturer.
Now let’s talk Daytona!
Daytona International Speedway represents the historical home of NASCAR and is one of two restrictor plate tracks on the schedule. The 2.5-mile Tri-Oval lap is banked at 31 degrees in the turns and 18 degrees in the Tri-oval, which both help to keep speeds near or at 200 mph. At 500 miles in length, it means there are 200 laps run for a full race with the stage conclusions coming at laps 60, 120, and 200. With restrictor plates on the car the speeds are reduced to increase safety, however it also means there is more pack racing than typical and knowing how to draft is a big advantage.
Chevys have ruled the day at Daytona historically, winning 32% (45) of the total races run at D.I.S. In addition to that, the eventual winner has come from the top-five starting spots 91% of the time here, which becomes even more impressive given the fact that the pole sitter hasn’t finished in the top-five in the last 15 years at the 500. With all that in mind, and the track data read, let’s take a look at the lineups for the Daytona 500.
DFS Playbook
Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $10,600 | $25.00 | What's there to say about Jr. at Daytona? He is the best plate racer in the field and has 10 career wins between here and 'Dega. He is far cheaper in NL making a great play there |
Brad Keselowski | $10,300 | $26.50 | Keselowski is probably the second best plate racer in the field, behind Jr. His Ford, as others, have been fast this week and a P7 starting spot adds upside to his rostering |
Joey Logano | $9,900 | $27.75 | Logano is coming off a win in The Clash and has the third best average finish in the last three years here not to mention a win. At less than 10k and starting P15 gives good value |
Kevin Harvick | $9,700 | $28.00 | Harvick dominated last year and now has a faster car in his new Ford, that's scary. The only downside here is a lack of laps led, but his average finishes speak for themselves |
Denny Hamlin | $9,600 | $26.00 | Hamlin won the 500 last year, by a mere six inches, and won the 2nd Duel this year. He is quite affordable in both DK and NL and should be in either cash or GPP lineups |
Kyle Busch | $9,400 | $27.25 | Kyle has the second best average finish in the field this week and has two top-fives in the last three races at DIS. He has also improved each practice and could be a great play |
Martin Truex Jr. | $9,000 | $27.25 | Truex Jr. was the unlucky driver at the end last year and has had a rough Speed Week this year. However, he still has the form from last season and starts P35 giving a lot of value |
Austin Dillon | $8,200 | $21.50 | Dillon has one of the best average finish marks in the field and has three top-10s in the last four races here. If his past performance holds, he should be a lock for a top-five |
Jamie McMurray | $8,000 | $21.00 | Jamie Mac has been fast this week and looked great in the Duel. However his history here is a little tough to bank on. He makes sense for a GPP lineup in DK and the NL lineup |
Clint Bowyer | $7,800 | $15.00 | Bowyer had it rough in 2016, but has already shown signs of life in 2017. He takes over for Tony Stewart in the number 14 Ford. Three top-10s in four races show is capabilities |
Daniel Suarez | $7,700 | $18.00 | Suarez is a 24-year-old rookie who already has everyone talking. His performance in The Clash and practice and the Duel have shown is skills and a GPP play is a great idea here |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,000 | $14.00 | Stenhouse Jr. starts P23, which is par for the course, but he has a history of moving up well. The 17-car has speed this week and a low price tag, combining for a GPP play |
Aric Almirola | $6,300 | $12.50 | Almirola has been lighting the asphalt on fire during Speed Week. He is one of only three drivers with a +10 positional differential or better which could turn into a top-five finish |
David Ragan | $6,000 | $6.00 | Ragan is another budget play who has speed this week. He has three top-20 finishes in the last four races but with a +7 postional mark and starting P20, top-10 could be in reach |
Michael McDowell | $5,800 | $9.50 | McDowell is the cheapest guy I like this week at it mainly for his positional differential history at DIS. A +14.4 mark and a top-10 in his past gives him upside as a punt play in GPP |
Optimal Lineups
Draft Kings Cash | |
Brad Keselowski | $10,300 |
Kevin Harvick | $9,700 |
Martin Truex Jr. | $9,000 |
Austin Dillon | $8,200 |
Aric Almirola | $6,300 |
David Ragan | $6,000 |
Total | $49,500 |
The Draft Kings cash game lineup starts with three of the big names from last season in Brad Keselowski ($10,300), Kevin Harvick ($9,700), and Martin Truex Jr. ($9,000) in the top three spots. Each of the three have great history at the track with Keselowski having a win here and Truex Jr. coming just short a season ago. Harvick has three top-10s in the last four races. The final half of the lineup consists of Austin Dillon ($8,200), Aric Almirola ($6,300), and David Ragan ($6,000). Dillon has the fourth best average finish at 9.25 over the last two years while Almirola and Ragan have shown great speed this week in practice and the Duels as well as possessing two of the highest positional differential mark in the field.
Draft Kings GPP | |
Joey Logano | $9,900 |
Kyle Busch | $9,400 |
Jamie McMurray | $8,000 |
Clint Bowyer | $7,800 |
Daniel Suarez | $7,700 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,000 |
Total | $49,800 |
My GPP lineup for Draft Kings this week is a balanced approach in terms of salaries but does carry a boom-or-bust character about it. Joey Logano ($9,900) and Kyle Busch ($9,400) anchor the top of the roster. Both are top-three average finishes at the track but haven’t looked consistent in practice this week nor in the Duels. Jamie McMurray ($8,000), Clint Bowyer ($7,800), Daniel Suarez ($7,700), and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000) are the four remaining speed demons in the roster. McMurray has an up and down history here but has a lot of speed in that number-1 car heading into Sunday. Bowyer and Stenhouse are underrated drivers at Daytona who have a history of moving well through the pack but are both coming off of sub-par seasons. Suarez has only raced a grand total of 135 laps in pseudo race conditions at D.I.S. having participated in The Clash a week ago and the first Duel on Thursday, but has had a lot of speed and talent while on the track.
NASCAR Live | |
Kevin Harvick | $28.00 |
Denny Hamlin | $26.00 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $25.00 |
Aric Almirola | $12.50 |
David Ragan | $6.00 |
Bonus Winner | Brad Keselowski |
Bonus Manufacturer | Ford |
Total | $97.50 |
The inaugural NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup starts with three big-ticket drivers in Kevin Harvick ($28.00), Denny Hamlin ($26.00), and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($25.00) with Denny and Jr. providing the most bang for the buck in the group as they are elite level drivers but are going at about the 10th pricing spot. Jr. is the best restrictor plate racer in the field this week and starts P2. Aric Almirola ($12.50) and David Ragan ($6.00) round out the five-driver roster and bring upside with their showing of speed in practice and the Duels and both have two of the best positional differential marks in the field which means they are bargains at these price points. Brad Keselowski and Ford are the bonus plays this week to try and log some bonus points for good measure.
Streak To The Finish | Kurt Busch |
The Streak To The Finish play is Kurt Busch due to his 10.29 AVG. finish at restrictor plate races the last two years and five top-10s in the last seven tries.