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Ford EcoBoost 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway
Last week in Phoenix, two final tickets were punched to this weekend’s championship race with Joey Logano punching his with a win and Kyle Busch’s notched by virtue of his points in the standings. Alex Bowman showed incredibly well after winning his first career pole in the Sprint Cup series and led 194 laps before eventually finishing sixth in the 88 car. With the second race in the valley of the sun complete, it shifts to the final race of the year and the only time racing in Miami since last November.
A track built to bring money back to the area devastated by one of the worst natural disasters to hit the U.S., has played host to the last race of the Sprint Cup season every year since 2002 and has been the last race in the Chase since 2004.
The 1.5-mile layout of Homestead-Miami Speedway is a slightly different lap than any other intermediate length track on the schedule. It has progressive banking from 18-20 degrees in the turns and a relatively flat three degrees of bank on the straightaways. Homestead is also one of the few true ovals on the circuit.
Five of the last six races at Homestead-Miami have produced laps led leaders with 119 laps or more. The only race that didn’t have that split was last year’s when several drivers led at least 50 laps. 88% of the eventual winners have come from the first five starting spots in the grid including the last three and four of the last six.
Whichever one of the Championship Four drivers finishes ahead of the other three, wins the title. It’s that simple. However the last two years that has taken a win in the Ford EcoBoost 400 to nail down the title. All four of the drivers will start next to another one in the grid as they qualified in ninth, 10th, 13th, and 14th during Friday’s qualifying session.
DFS PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,800 | J.J. comes into the Championship as the favorite for his 7th title. He has four top-fives and 10 top-10s in 15 races here and starts P14 on Sunday. He can be a cash or GPP play |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,700 | Harvick has the highest average finish over the last 15 races at 7.2 to go with a win a seven top-fives. He is the pole sitter despite not being in the chase and should be in both |
| Kyle Busch | $10,500 | Busch is the defending champ of the race and the Sprint Cup title. He has been hit and miss in 11 races with four top-10s but has shown good speed this week. GPP is better |
| Joey Logano | $10,200 | Logano is fresh off a win at PIR. He has a top-five and two top-10s in seven tries at HMS. He starts P13 but ran P4 in practice and could prove valuable in a cash linuep here |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,000 | Truex Jr. has been a bit under the radar in recent weeks but is showing top end speed again. He has three top-fives and seven top-10s in 11 races with 111 laps led. Cash works |
| Carl Edwards | $9,700 | Edwards has the best record at the track compared to the other Championship Four with two wins and five top-fives with 568 laps led in 12 races. Either lineup works this week |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | Keselowski has two top-fives and three top-10s in eight tries at the track. He's starting P2 and offers a chance to get an elite point producer for a low top-tier price |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,300 | Kenseth has a win, four top-fives, and eight top-10s with 449 laps led in 16 races. Kenseth ran well in qualifying with a P6 starting spot. He has been on a hot streak in the Chase |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,600 | Hamlin has two wins, four top-fives, and seven top-10s in his career at Homestead and starts near the top of the field. He can post elite value for mid-tier pricing at $8,600 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,800 | Newman has been solid in the Chase but could be saving his best for last. He has speed this week and runs well here with two top-fives and five top-10s in 14 races. GPP works |
| Tony Stewart | $7,500 | Stewart, like Scott, is in his last race of his career. Smoke has been a prolific driver here with three wins, four top-fives and seven top-10s. An upside cash game play is good here |
| Alex Bowman | $7,400 | Bowman is fresh off his career-best race and wants to end the season on a high note. A positional differential of +7.5 anchors good mid-tier value making him a GPP play |
| Paul Menard | $6,500 | Menard has a top-five and top-10 to his credit and has been showing good speed this week in practice. If his practice spped holds, he could boost a lineup easily at $6,500 |
| Brian Scott | $5,600 | Brian Scott is retiring at the end of the season, hence after Sunday. He has been driving free and easy this week and could make one last good showing before bowing out |
| Michael Annett | $5,000 | Annett represents a budget play for positional differential as he has one of the best in the field over the last two races at +6.5. A cash to play to allow for higher priced drivers |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,800 |
| Joey Logano | $10,200 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,000 |
| Tony Stewart | $7,500 |
| Paul Menard | $6,500 |
| Michael Annett | $5,000 |
| Total | $50,000 |
Three $10,000-level drivers, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr. anchor the final cash lineup of the season. Each of them bring a distinct track history with them that make them solid plays. Both J.J. and Logano are still alive for the title and Johnson starts in what could be an advantageous P14 in the starting grid. Tony Stewart and Paul Menard, at $7,500 and $6,500 respectively, are next in the six-driver lineup. Smoke is in his final race and is arguably the best driver in the field this week with three career wins here and seven top-10s in 16 races. Menard is an upside play based on solid history at the track and speed shown so far this week. Michael Annett rounds out the squad at $5,000 as a guy who carries a very solid +6.5 positional differential with them to the track on Sunday.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,700 |
| Carl Edwards | $9,700 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,600 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,800 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,400 |
| Brian Scott | $5,600 |
| Total | $49,800 |
Our final GPP lineup of the 2016 season is led by Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards at $10,700 and $9,700 respectively, who both offer upside heading into Sunday. Harvick is the pole sitter while Edwards has the best history at the track of the four drivers going for the Sprint Cup Series title. The next three drivers are all in the mid-tier of salaries this week with Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, and Alex Bowman who have all shown flashes of speed this week with Hamlin leading the way in terms of best finishes at Homestead in his career here. Brian Scott, $5,600, finishes off the six-man squad in what will be his final races of his Sprint Cup career as he has announced that he is retiring after the season. His racing has been free and easy this week and he could produce in an effort to go out on a high note.
On a personal note, I have enjoyed writing this weekly article this season. We have seen some wins and some loses but hopefully have had fun along the way and maybe even learned a thing or two. I will be eagerly anticipating the Daytona 500 in February and the start of the 2017 NASCAR season. Good luck!