AAA Texas 500

Texas Motor Speedway

Martinsville was typical short track racing last Sunday and saw Jimmie Johnson notch a spot in the championship race at Homestead-Miami in three weeks. Matt Kenseth showed well in leading 176 laps before ultimately finishing fourth after starting 17th.  After going from the longest track to the shortest, we now transition to the average length of track at 1.5-mile loop at Texas Motor Speedway.

Texas is a sister track to Michigan International Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway in terms of design of the track and length. However, it doesn’t carry the speed that Michigan does due to a difference in the banking around the track. In the 31-race history of the track, 81% of winners have come from the top-five starting spots in the grid, which is pretty common for the 1.5-mile distance tracks. Chevys have won most often, claiming victory lane 12-out-of-31 times. Laps led and passing are two tricky categories to project as there are only a handful of drivers in each that have very positive numbers.  Six drivers have a positional differential of +6 or better plus another six have led more than 100 laps here in the last five races, the better part of three years; none are the same.

With just two races left before the final race of the year at Homestead-Miami and just three spots up for grabs from the remaining seven drivers still competing to lock one up, this race sets up to be a critical one to show well at. As mentioned above, Johnson is the only one locked in by virtue of a win a week ago, and if he wins once more, it makes the race at Phoenix next Sunday that much more vital.

PLAYBOOK

DriverDraft KingsDescription
Kevin Harvick$10,900Harvick comes in with three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five here as well as having led nearly 800 more laps at the distance than anyone in the field. Either is a fine play
Jimmie Johnson$10,800J.J. has the most wins here (three) in the last five races as well as the third highest average finish at 6.4. He has been the guy at 1.5-mile tracks so a spot in a roster is a must
Martin Truex Jr.$10,700Truex has been good here recently with three top-10s and the third most laps led with 142. However 141 of those laps came in the April race this year. Cash or GPP can work
Kyle Busch$10,200Busch is the most consistent driver on the track this week. In the past four races here, he hasn't finished worse than fourth in any of them. Starting P24 gives him solid upside
Brad Keselowski$9,600He is the laps led leader over the last three years with 446 at the front of the pack. He also has three top-fives under his belt too. His history at the distance lends to cash lineups
Joey Logano$9,400Logano has a win here and three top-fives in the five races at TMS. He will start P2 which could have him leading quite a few laps (127 previously) making him GPP or Cash ready
Chase Elliott$9,200Elliot has only raced here once in a Sprint Cup car but it was a dandy of a showing finishing fifth. While in Xfinity he had five straight top-10s and a win. Chase is fine for either
Carl Edwards$8,900Edwards has nearly identical stats to Logano, save for the win. So at $500 cheaper, he gives more flexibility. He does start P9 giving him a better positional differential chance
Jamie McMurray$8,100McMurray owns one of the best positional differential marks in the field at +8 along with a top-five and three top-10 finishes. His upside is hard to ignore at mid-tier pricing
Austin Dillon$7,900Dillon is on the pole for the AAA Texas 500. His record in Sprint Cup is decent but in Xfinity races he posted eight straight top-10 finishes here including being on the pole once
Tony Stewart$7,700Stewart is coming to Texas for the final time ans is looking for redemption from April. He will start P23 but he can finish in the top-10 from there like he has done several times
A.J. Allmendinger$7,600Allmendinger has shown good speed here this week in practice and qualifying and has a long history of solid finishes. He is capable of finishing inside the top-10 on Sunday
Paul Menard$6,600Menard is another driver with good speed this week and a top-10 finish to his credit with a best of ninth. At a lower-tier price he is a solid upside play for GPP lineups Sunday
Casey Mears$6,000Mears is typically not an on the radar driver but his speed this week has put him on the map. Mears will start P10 and if his speed holds, he could be a big bargain at $6,000
Michael Annett$4,800Annett is the owner of one of the best positional differentials in the field at +8 and as a bargain basement driver he could be worth the price at $4,800 for Sunday

EXAMPLE LINEUPS

Draft Kings Cash 
Kyle Busch$10,200
Brad Keselowski$9,600
Joey Logano$9,400
Jamie McMurray$8,100
A.J. Allmendinger$7,600
Michael Annett$4,800
  
Total$49,700

Sunday’s cash lineup is stacked with consistent finishers at TMS and has a couple of upside plays. Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano all represent three of the top-five drivers on the track in the last three years and have a combined 10 top-five finishes between them including a win. Keselowski also leads the field in laps led with 446. Jamie McMurray and A.J. Allmendinger represent the mid-tier options in the lineup with a mix of consistency and upside present. McMurray owns one of the best positional differentials in the field and has finished better than 10th thrice. Allmendinger is showing speed this week that is front-of-the-pack fast despite his only decent history at the track; He is the upside play. Michael Annett rounds out the six-driver squad with a budget play that has shown the ability to move through the field.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kevin Harvick$10,900
Jimmie Johnson$10,800
Chase Elliot$9,200
Jamie McMurray$8,100
Casey Mears$6,000
Michael Annett$4,800
  
Total$49,800

The GPP lineup begins with the two most expensive drivers in the salaries this week with Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson heading it up. Harvick is a dominant driver at the 1.5-mile tracks in leading 800 more laps than the next closest driver and has four top-10s in the last five here. Johnson has won three of the last five races at Texas and eight at this distance overall in the last three years. A 6.4 average finish isn’t shabby either. Chase Elliot and Jamie McMurray come next with Chase only having one Sprint Cup race under his belt here, though he finished fifth, and a good history in Xfinity Series. McMurray offers the consistent factor necessary in the GPP lineup. Casey Mears and Michael Annett finish off the squad of six with two budget-friendly drivers that have upside. Mears has shown very good speed all week with top-10 showings in practice thus far. Annett is a positional grab at that price.