DFS NASCAR: Hollywood Casinos 400 Playbook & Optimal Lineups
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Hollywood Casinos 400
Kansas Speedway
Charlotte marked the first race in the Round of 12 in the Chase and a very good opening salvo it was. Jimmie Johnson ended the longest winless streak of his career with a win at the Bank of America 500 and thus punched his ticket for the Round of 8, for the first time of his career. Kevin Harvick had a second straight rough outing and now needs a good race to regain his footing in the Chase standings and avoid elimination.
Sunday the 16th, brings the Hollywood 400 at Kansas Speedway, the second race at Kansas this season. It’s a 1.5-mile loop and one of the newer tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule, having opened in 2001. As was the case with the spring race at the track, 76% of eventual winners come from the top-five starting spots and 48% of winners have been Chevys. However the passing stats are unusual with numbers like that in that only five drivers have +6 positional differentials or better in the last five races. Laps led is also clumped into a few drivers as well so trying to get laps led dominators on the roster is highly suggested.
As we head into the second race in the Round of 12, the standings are still very much bunched up with first (Jimmie Johnson) and 12th (Kevin Harvick) separated by a total of 41 points. Austin Dillon, Chase Elliot, Joey Logano, and the aforementioned Harvick are in 9th through 12th and out of contention by no more than eight points behind eighth place Denny Hamlin. With drivers knowing that this week is the easier of the two remaining races in the round, given next week is Talladega, it could lead to some surprising strategies by Crew Chiefs and drivers on the track, in order to cement their position before the typical craziness that unfolds on the Alabama superspeedway takes place.
With that in mind, lets have a look at the playbook and optimal lineups!
PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $11,100 | Truex came back down to earth a bit last week but heads to Kansas where he leads in laps led in the last three years. Starting P4 has him in a great spot to reign supreme again |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,900 | Harvick has had two bad races in a row but could rebound at here, where he has three top-fives in the last five races. He should put up a great point total from starting P11 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,600 | J.J. notched a win last week and has put up two 100+-point weeks in a row. He dominates at this distance including having a win here. GPP or cash work for him this week |
| Kyle Busch | $10,000 | Kyle has a win and three top-fives in his last four races here, and has the best average finish in the field. He however starts P2 and could pose a risk in a cash lineup that high |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,700 | Keselowski has continued to find his groove the last few weeks with 9-out-of-10 races having 45+ points. He does however tend to move backwards here so a GPP play is better |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 | Logano is the most dominant driver at Kansas in the last three years. He has two wins and four top-five finishes and 259 laps led making him a steal at this price point of $9,200 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,000 | Hamlin has a top-five and two top-10s in the last five tries at Kansas but remains a shaky play. He has shown good speed this week so far and is capable of 65+ point showings |
| Carl Edwards | $8,900 | Edwards is headed to his home track, one that he has never won on. He has a top-five and three top-10s in the last three years and starts P3 along with his teammates |
| Matt Kenseth | $8,700 | Kenseth is on the pole for the Hollywood Casinos 400 after a very good three week stretch. He could be looking at a lot of laps led from the P1 starting spot. GPP works better |
| Ryan Newman | $8,000 | Newman has three top-10s in past five races at Kansas and has finished between 6th and 11th each time. Newman will start P9 on Sunday which could result in a 45+ point day |
| Ryan Blaney | $7,500 | Blaney has only run three races at Kansas but placed in the top-10 twice. He has proven he can produce this season but his inconsistency makes him a GPP play only this week |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $7,000 | Allmendinger owns one of the best positional differentials in the field at +8.8 through the last three years. A P10 spot in the grid puts him in contention for a big week at Kansas |
| Danica Patrick | $6,200 | Patrick has a top-10 to her credit here and moves up well with a +5 positional differential. She is an upside play at this price with three 35+ point races in the last five overall |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 | Cassill remains a consistent 20-30 FPPR produce at this salary level. He does have a +5 positional differential here and has finished a high of 21st. Budget friendly is the move |
| Michael Annett | $4,800 | Annett is a budget-friendly play who actually has the best positional mark in the field at +10.2 over the last three years at Kansas. Could do worse for a punt play in a lineup |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $11,100 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,600 |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 |
| Carl Edwards | $8,900 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 |
| Michael Annett | $4,800 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The cash lineup this week starts with two the three most expensive drivers in Martin Truex Jr. ($11,100) and Jimmie Johnson ($10,600) who are both at the tops of their respective games right now. Truex is coming off a down week, for him, at just 35 points but he does lead the field in laps lead (267) over the last three years here. J.J., as he’s known, has posted two straight 100+-point weeks, and while I don’t expect another week like those, he could certainly go for 75+ with his history at the track. Joey Logano ($9,200) and Carl Edwards ($8,900) are next in the lineup as they bring a combo of consistency and upside to the roster. Logano is the best driver in the field at this track the last three years with two wins, four top-10s and 259 laps led and Edwards is hoping to lock down his first win on his home track and cement his place in the Round of 8. Landon Cassill ($5,300) and Michael Annett ($4,800) are both budget plays to allow for the higher price tag drivers, however they bring upside as well. Cassill is consistently between 20-30 FPPR while Annett owns the biggest positional differential in the field at +10.2 over the last five races and should be able to replicate that once again.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,900 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,700 |
| Matt Kenseth | $8,700 |
| Ryan Blaney | $7,500 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $7,000 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,200 |
| Total | $50,000 |
The GPP lineup of six this week has no similar drivers to the cash one. It starts with Kevin Harvick ($10,900) looking for a bounce back week this week and starts P11 in the grid, which could bode well for a point total from him. Brad Keselowski ($9,700) and Matt Kenseth ($8,700) are the next two up in the roster. Keselowski has continued to produce big point totals in nine of the last 10 races overall but is a bit of a risk at Kansas with an average finish of 15th after starting in the top-five. Kenseth is sitting on the pole on Sunday so hence why he isn’t a cash game play with the risk of losing position. He does doe well at Kansas and is fourth in the field in terms of laps led in the last five races. Ryan Blaney ($7,500) and A.J. Allmendinger ($7,000) represent upside mid-tier options and can sneak into the top-10 or in Allmendinger’s case could contend for the win if his +8.8 positional mark holds true. Danica Patrick ($6,200) rounds out the six-driver squad as she has been very solid at Kansas with a top-10 to her credit and having posted three 35+-point outcomes in the last five races overall.