Race four in the Chase comes on Saturday night in Charlotte for the Bank of America 500. There are just 12 drivers left in contention for the Championship after four got eliminated after the Citizen Soldier 400 last Sunday at Dover. We are back to a 1.5-mile loop for the second time in the Chase playoffs, following Chicago, which will give us quite a bit in terms of history to pull from. The last time a points race was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Martin Truex Jr. led 394 laps of 400 in the Coca-Cola 600.

*Weather could be a factor this week in delaying the race from Saturday night as Hurricane Matthew is forecast to be along the North Carolina coast around that time, but delays will not affect the presented data.

Track Breakdown

 Avg.Avg.     Laps  HighLow Avg.DiffLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Kevin Harvick93.2514552880190124.45.87214.40
Martin Truex Jr.12.89.65133452311250111.63.2130.7526.15
Carl Edwards10.47.451245310118094.937.751.55
Joey Logano5.67.85123524501130109-2.261.2512.25
Jimmie Johnson9.8205122317111401103.9-10.242.758.55
Denny Hamlin4.69.4502447504220103.3-4.818.753.75
Matt Kenseth12.615502341312342193.4-2.432.756.55
Jamie McMurray23.811.650225390319083.612.29.751.95
Brad Keselowski8.69.4501455405160101.7-0.813.52.70
Kurt Busch14.414.4501341200540198.90306.00
Kyle Busch8.615.650124451533194.5-711.252.25
Greg Biffle1015.25011300224075.9-5.200.00
Ryan Newman1810.65003510615082.37.40.250.05
Austin Dillon2112.85001570716083.98.21.750.35
Kyle Larson22.616.65001380625082.4620.40
Paul Menard17.423.45001320842171-60.50.10
Aric Almirola15.617.250013101026074.1-1.60.250.05
Kasey Kahne20.820.250013001043168.60.600.00
Chase Elliott20132001200818077.7700.00
Clint Bowyer20.622.850003101143171.6-2.20.250.05
A.J. Allmendinger21.619.250003001229067.42.400.00
Ryan Blaney16.725.3330002001442173.5-8.6300.00
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.21.62350002001337065-1.400.00
Tony Stewart18.22150001001326066.7-2.800.00
Danica Patrick16.225.450001001939160-9.200.00
Casey Mears2725.250001001831057.11.800.00
Trevor Bayne2123.540001002027054.8-2.500.00
Michael Annett37.230.850000102536039.56.40.250.05
Brian Scott24.530.520000002932051.9-600.00
David Ragan2634.850000003141250-8.800.00
Regan Smith312810000002828047.8300.00
Landon Cassill34.229.650000002339043.34.600.00
Michael McDowell3030.850000002934043.2-0.800.00
Alex Bowman3030.2540000002633043-0.2500.00
Chris Buescher223710000003737039.9-1500.00
Cole Whitt35.831.250000002738138.44.600.00
Matt DiBenedetto38.731.6730000002934036.47.0300.00
Reed Sorenson38.33640000002742234.52.300.00
Josh Wise37.538.7540000003541231.6-1.2500.00
Jeffrey Earnhardt393910000003939025.3000.00

Key Drivers on 1.5-Mile Tracks

 Avg.Avg.     Laps HighLow  DiffLaps LedLaps Led
DriverStartFinishRacesWinsTop 5'sTop 10'sTop 20'sLedPolesFinishFinishDNFRatingPts.Pts.Pts./race
Jimmie Johnson13.613.0332713192596011412101.60.572407.50
Brad Keselowski6.48.973251325301,41841391109.3-2.57354.511.08
Kevin Harvick7.18.973241825292,07441421118.2-1.87518.516.20
Joey Logano6.6103241822281,08031403107.7-3.42708.44
Kyle Busch10.98.9628413192668011391104.71.941706.07
Martin Truex Jr.11.211.69323715281,11721270101-0.49279.258.73
Carl Edwards10.411.163221118302131142091.8-0.7653.251.66
Denny Hamlin11.113.91321917263071142392.5-2.8176.752.40
Kasey Kahne16.315.6632131124800143384.40.64200.63
Matt Kenseth13.911.45310921265163242298.52.451294.16
Kurt Busch10.314.3300517233703342591.4-492.53.08
Ryan Newman12.611.1632051630320224088.91.4480.25
Kyle Larson1517.0632051221830240386-2.0620.750.65
Jamie McMurray15.915.7532048261070340282.20.1526.750.84
Chase Elliott14.917.1100267760341286.5-2.2191.90

Drivers to watch this week:

Martin Truex Jr.- Truex has owned the Chase so far with two wins in the first three races and now comes the track he has dominated on in the last couple of seasons. The 394 laps led at the 600 set a record for most led in a single race ever in the history of NASCAR and has put him in the forefront this week. Another performance like the aforementioned one is highly unlikely but he is still a top pick this Saturday night.

Kevin Harvick- Harvick has been the dominant driver pretty much all season, save for last week when he had trouble at the beginning of the race and finished 37th. He has a win, four top-fives and five top-10s in the last five races here including the top average finish at 3.2 of anyone in the field. Harvick is another elite driver option this week as he tries to rebound from the disappointment of last week and punch his spot into the next round

Joey Logano- Logano is one of the five drivers in the field with a win at CMS in the last five tries but he also has three top-10 finishes as well. The 7.8 average finish at the track ranks him third in the field as does the 245 laps led. He has found consistency of late too with seven of the last eight races producing 40 or more FPPR and the eighth coming in at 35. He sits 5th right now but a win would punch his ticket to the Round of 8.

Jamie McMurray- McMurray barely missed the Round of 12 on Sunday but was edged in the end by Austin Dillon, but that doesn’t mean his value changes this week. At +12.2 positional differential, he owns the only double-digit one in the field and that will certainly boost his playability on Saturday. Aside from that, McMurray also has two top-five finishes to his credit at Charlotte. He could be a sleeper at a mid-tier value.

Ryan Newman- Newman owns the third best positional differential in the field at +7.4 but also has claimed three top-10 positions in the last five chances at Charlotte. Newman has been a bit up and down recently, but does have the high upside potential needed for lineups at this point in the season. A top-15 finish is the worst he’s done so sneaking in the top-10 shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for him.