DFS NASCAR: Citizen Soldier 400 Playbook & Optimal Lineups
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Citizen Soldier 400
Dover International Speedway
Sunday brings with it the first cut-down race of the Chase as drivers 13th-16th in the standings will be eliminated after the checkered flag waves. Dover International Speedway, or the Monster Mile, will be the second straight one-mile length track following an exciting race at New Hampshire last week that saw Kevin Harvick lock his spot for the second round of the playoffs. Martin Truex Jr. had another outstanding effort despite finishing seventh when all said and done. Matt Kenseth led 105 of the 400 laps and finished in the runner up spot, coming up just shy of extending the streak to three straight wins at the race for the lobster.
Even though the gentlemen, and lady, will be racing on the same distance for the second week in a row, the speeds at Dover will be completely different than those from Loudon and that’s all due to the banking on the track. Loudon is one of, if not the, flattest tracks on the schedule as compared to the 24-degree turns of the Monster Mile along with 9-degree banking in the straightaways, which allow for speeds about 30 MPH faster at Dover.
As a result of the faster speeds, 88% of drivers who have won at DIS have started fifth or better that day, compared to just 74% for New Hampshire. With Sunday being a do or die race for four drivers, there are bound to be contrarian pit strategies employed as the crew chiefs try and get their guys the track position they may need to last another round in the playoffs. This has a bearing on DFS players as there maybe extreme moves made up through the field, that wouldn’t usually be the case. For Example, Chris Buescher is sitting at 16th in the Chase standings and needs a win to move on, as he can’t make up the deficit in points alone, however his history at the track suggests he is capable of moving through the field well already, but if they employ the strategy that got them the win at Pocono, who knows how it could work out for him.
With all of that in mind, lets take a peek at the lineups this week as we go for eight consecutive weeks of a lineup cashing.
DFS PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,900 | Harvick completely dominates at 1-mile tracks with six wins and 2,100+ laps led, 810 of which have come in the last five at Dover. He starts P6 and has upside for both lineups |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 | Truex has four top-10 finishes in the last five races at Dover and is third on the list of laps led with 178 in that span. He is on a big hot streak and should continue it Sunday |
| Kyle Larson | $9,900 | Larson ran the fastest time in the first pracitce session and will start P12. He hasn't finished worse than 11th at the track including a runner-up in May making him a must play |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,700 | Kenseth has a win at the track which came back in May along with three top-fives and four top-10s in five races. He has been on a tear recently and makes sense for a GPP |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,500 | Hamlin has a top-five finish with 133 laps led in the last five tries at the Monster Mile but he typically goes backwards in the field so a GPP play is all he can be counted on for |
| Joey Logano | $9,400 | Logano has a top-five and three top-10s while usually finishing about where he starts. He will start P5 Sunday so at $9,400 he could be slotted into either format's roster |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,300 | Johnson has been in a rut since May but comes to a track he's won on twicein five races. He adds 299 laps led as well. JJ should boost a GPP roster if he gets it going this week |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,100 | Keselowski is well below his typical salary here which is great value for a guy who averages a 7th place finish here and has led 156 laps in five races. Cash or GPP works for him |
| Chase Elliott | $8,900 | Elliot has only one race at Dover in the Sprint Cup car but did well. He rose from 13th to finish 3rd back in May and has continued to produce at this distance. GPP or Cash |
| Jeff Gordon | $8,400 | Gordon has a win to his credit in the last four races he's run here, having missed May's trip. He has another top-10 finish and always ends in the top-15. GPP is the only play |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,600 | Kahne owns a +5.8 positional differential along with two top-five finishes including a fourth place mark in May. He's averaging 46 FPPR in the last four overall for great value |
| Clint Bowyer | $7,100 | Bowyer owns three top-10 finishes and a +7.8 positional differential and has only finished outside the top-10 twice since September of 2010 at Dover. Cash lineup is the play |
| Aric Almirola | $6,300 | Almirola is a sleeper this week as he is one of the 10 best drivers in the field this Sunday. He has two top-five finishes, both coming last year and at $6,300 that's hard to ignore |
| Danica Patrick | $6,100 | Patick has two top-20 finishes in the last five tries at Dover but has been very consisent the back half of the year. In the last two 1-mile races, she's averaging 37 FPPR |
| Ty Dillon | $5,900 | Dillon hasn't been in a Sprint Cup car yet but has raced at Dover seven times in the Xfinity Series. Five top-10s in those races are intriguing as is his solid point totals this year |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,100 |
| Clint Bowyer | $7,100 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,100 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,900 |
| Total | $49,600 |
The cash lineup for Sunday’s race is led by the top-two drivers on the price list in Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. Harvick is by far and away the best driver at the 1-mile distance with six wins, though none at Dover, and more than 1,500 more laps led than the next closest driver in the last 16 races at the distance. Truex is remarkably hot right now but also carries impressive accomplishments at Dover, with four top-10 finishes and 178 laps led. Brad Keselowski is priced at $9,100 this week, which makes him a big-time value this week, especially given that he averages a seventh place finish and his fourth in laps led with 156 in the past five races. Clint Bowyer, Danica Patrick, and Ty Dillon close out the second half of the lineup for Dover as they all provide good value at their price points. Bowyer has finished 10th or better in each race since September of 2010 while Patrick and Dillon give us upside for two 35+-point performers.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,900 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,900 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,300 |
| Chase Elliot | $8,900 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,300 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,500 |
| Total | $49,800 |
Kevin Harvick again leads off the GPP roster at the $10,900 salary with a P6 starting spot giving enough upside for positional differential points as well as laps led. Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, and Chase Elliot are next in the six-man squad with salaries between $9,900-$8,900. Larson ran the fastest time at practice on Friday and has not finished worse than 11th in his five career races, including a runner up finish in May. Johnson and Elliot are both part of a Hendrick Motorsports team that is searching for an end to it’s months long slump but both have the ability, and past history at the track, to make a run at the checkered flag. Johnson has two wins at the track and Elliot finished third here in May after starting 13th. Aric Almirola, my sleeper pick of the week, is up next in the lineup as he offers the potential for a top-10 finish while starting P27 and costing just $6,300. Jeffrey Earnhardt rounds out the roster at $4,500, but he’s not just a budget-play. He has put up four 24-point races or better in his 15 races on the year with another three at 15 FPP or better.