Bad Boy Off Road 300

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Chicagoland played host to the first race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup last Sunday with Martin Truex Jr. coming away with the win to lock him in for the next round. Chase Elliot and Jimmie Johnson gave some life to Hendrick Motorsports as they led a combined 193 of 270 laps run while finishing third and 12th respectively. There were some sparks on the track as well as Kevin Harvick and the aforementioned Truex Jr. got into it on the track and both subsequently failed the post-race LIS inspection, but were not docked penalties.

Now this Sunday, NASCAR returns to the Northeast and New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the second time this season. Loudon, as it’s also known as, is a 1-mile track that poses an interesting test as it has variable banking in the turns, though it is still nearly flat. Four degrees at the apron and bottom groove and seven degrees in the top grooves is all the banking the drivers get to try and hold the speed through the turns. The flatness of the track makes passing a challenge as drivers can’t simply drive under their opponent while in the turns as the car will not hold the line well. In the July race here, several drivers came charging up through the field to make appearances in the top-10 at the end of the day, including Matt Kenseth, who worked his magic again and won from a starting spot at 19th.

With this race and the next, at Dover International Speedway a.k.a The Monster Mile, the first round of the Chase comes to an end and the 13th-16th placed drivers fall out of contention, so the pressure is on to prove their abilities on the 1-mile tracks. A win guarantees a trip into the round of 12 but points still matter. So with that all in mind and the thought that only 74% of drivers who start P5 or better go on to win, lets delve into the picks for this week’s lineup and why they were made.

PLAYBOOK

DriverDraft KingsDescription
Kevin Harvick$10,700Harvick doesn't have a win at NHMS in the last five races but does own the most laps led (379) and three top-five finishes. As the highest point scorer, he's play in both lineups
Kyle Busch$10,600Busch has a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last five races along with the third most laps led. He continues to be a streaky driver this year so GPP is a better fit.
Martin Truex Jr.$10,400Truex Jr. is fresh off a win in the opening race of the Chase and did well here in the Summer race, leading 123 laps. He is a fine pick for either cash or GPP this week.
Matt Kenseth$10,100Kenseth is the BMOT at Loudon, winning three of the last six including the last two. He needs to qualify for the next round of the Chase still and this week is a great chance
Brad Keselowski$9,900Keselowski has a win here with two top-fives and three top-10s and the second most laps led (321) in the last five races. An solid Summer race puts him in cash or GPP lineups
Joey Logano$9,600Logano is the fourth driver with a win at NHMS in the last five races and also has four top-five finishes. At under $10,000, he could be a GPP bargain with a P15 starting spot
Denny Hamlin$9,300Hamlin has a top-five and three top-10s in the last two year's worth of races at Loudon. He is starting to same place he did in the July race and works for a GPP lineup 
Kyle Larson$9,100Larson has come on lately and ran the fastest at the first practice Friday. He has two top-fives in his five races here but none since 2014. Larson is a risk but a worthwhile one
Tony Stewart$8,400Stewart is racing at Loudon for the last time but has performed well here recently including a runner up finish in July. Cash maybe a stretch, though doable, GPP works better
Austin Dillon$8,200Dillon owns one of the best positional differentials in the field and has a top-10 finish to his credit. A sleeper pick this week could be in the cards, though the price is a bit steep
Ryan Newman$8,000Newman is in the sleeper ranks despite the P3 starting spot. This spot for a guy with his history at NHMS is hard to beat. He has the second best differential mark in the field
Jamie McMurray$7,800McMurray is nearly a top-10 driver this week with a top-five and two top-10s at the track. A mid-range price point for a guy who put up 50+ in July is tough to beat for cash
Greg Biffle$7,200Biffle has a monsterous +10.6 positional differential in the last five runs plus three top-10 finishes. The upside with him exists especially with a P32 starting spot Sunday
Aric Almirola$6,100Almirola is capable of a top-10 finish here, as he has one in since 2014. A P26 spot in the grid gives the upside for the bottom end of a cash or GPP roster with a chance for 30+
Michael Annett$4,800Annett is a budget-friendly play as he comes in at $4,800, but still gives upside with his positional differential of +6.2 over the last five races at NHMS.

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

Draft Kings Cash 
Kevin Harvick$10,700
Martin Truex Jr.$10,400
Brad Keselowski$9,900
Jamie McMurray$7,800
Aric Almirola$6,100
Michael Annett$4,800
  
Total$49,700

The cash roster this week is full solid performers at the track, including ones that put up big numbers in the July race. Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. lead the way as the two of the three most expensive drivers. They are also the two highest average point producers on the Sprint circuit. Brad Keselowski is next up and provides the lineup with another top producer at the track including a win and three top-10s in the last five races. The three combined are three of the top-four laps leaders at the track as well. Jamie McMurray is fourth on the roster but has the upside of a top-five performer. Aric Almirola and Michael Annett round out the six-man crew with more upside via a top-10 finish from Almirola and a healthy +6.2 positional differential from Annett. Both are capable of 30+ point outputs and in the case of Almirola, 40+ could be in the cards if things go his way.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kyle Busch$10,600
Matt Kenseth$10,100
Kyle Larson$9,100
Ryan Newman$8,000
Greg Biffle$7,200
Michael Annett$4,800
  
Total$49,800

My GPP lineup this race still is anchored by two top performers with a few mid-tier drivers that could rise up this week and then rounded out with a budget-friendly play. Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are the top picks for this roster at $10,600 and $10,100 respectively but both have a great history at the track. They are two of the top-three drivers at the track and Kenseth owns the past two wins in a row. Kyle Larson is next at $9,100 and is strictly an upside play. The first two races he ran at New Hampshire, he finished 3rd and 2nd respectively but since then just middle of the pack finishes. Larson has been quick this week and is having quite the few week stretch as well. Next up are Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle who both are sleeper picks this week and Biffle owns the best positional differential in the field at +10.6. Newman also owns the second best mark in the field at +8.4, which combined factor to equal 20 points just from moving through the lap traffic. Michael Annett is the budget play to finish out the lineup of six just as he was in the cash play. The lineup provides a solid floor but could boast a high point total as five of the drivers are in the top-eight at New Hampshire recently.

As a side note, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth can be swapped in the two lineups without budget issues if you prefer the opposite plays for them.