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Pure Michigan 400
Michigan International Speedway
Just like in June, the race before Michigan had weather delays and wound up being pushed back a day. When Bristol finally got underway, the racing was just as exciting as expected, especially with the work done on the bottom groove to make it viable. In the end it was Kevin Harvick taking the checkered flag, coming all the way up from 24th to lead 128 of the 500 laps around the short track. It was an interesting race that didn’t follow the previous pattern of the top-five starting spots leading 60% or more of the laps.
We now head back to the rolling hills of central Michigan for the second date at the fastest track on the Sprint Cup schedule and it’s even faster low-downforce package. Joey Logano led 138 laps in June’s race and won from the pole at the Firekeepers Casino 400 in a big showcase race for Ford. The speeds were just as fast in practice and qualifying with the top 11 cars registering speeds better than 200 mph with the first nine starting spots going over 201 mph in qualifying.
As a refresher, Michigan International Speedway is a D-shaped track with high banking in the first turn to allow speeds to carry down the backstretch. The front stretch is incredibly wide which can sometimes produce five wide coming to the line meaning accidents are common. 84% of eventual winners have come from P5 or better to start the race and Ford’s have won 37% of the races here. Auto Club Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway can also help give insight into what drivers will do here since they are essentially twin tracks to MIS. One of the side effects of it being a 2-mile track is that there are only a handful of drivers to lead significant lap totals; four with more than 60 over the last five races to be specific. With that few dominators in the field, it will be important to get a couple of them into the same lineups.
DFS PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,700 | Harvick is the best driver without a win at Michigan in the last five races. Four top-five finishes and 141 laps led say he should once again be running at the front of the pack |
| Joey Logano | $10,400 | Logano won from the pole in the June race while leading 138 of 200 laps and will sit on the pole once again. He says he's figured MIS out so this should be another good week |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,200 | Keselowski has the second-best average finish in the last five races (6.0) and hasn't finished outside the top-10 yet. Consistency is what he brings and should be in a lineup |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,900 | Truex Jr. has been solid at Michigan with two top-fives and 10 laps led in the last five. He posted a score of 30.5 points in the June race and will be looking to improve that total |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,700 | Kenseth has a win, two top-fives, and 151 laps led which is second most in the field at Michigan. He's shown flashes of his elite ability this season and Sunday could see it again |
| Carl Edwards | $9,500 | Edwards has had a very good last couple of weeks and will look to reproduce his 45.5 point race from back in June. He runs in the top-15 on average and has two top-10s |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,300 | Johnson is looking to recapture his early season magic at a track that he is usually good at. He will start P2 and will be in the hunt for a lot of laps led. GPP is still a better play |
| Kurt Busch | $9,100 | Busch has a win to his credit at Michigan and two top-10s in the last five tries. His early season top-10 finish streak seems behind him now though that could change this week |
| Chase Elliott | $8,700 | The rookie was spectacular in his race in June when he drove up from 10th to 2nd after a mistake cost the win. He still needs a win for the Chase, he could very well get it here |
| Kyle Larson | $8,500 | Larson has come on of late having six 45 or better point races since the All-Star race. The young gun also has a top-five and two top-10s in five races at MIS. Either game works |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,800 | Kahne is starting in a great spot at P11 as he can move up and nab a second top-five finish while posting another 40-point showing. A mid-tier salary is a good value for Kahne |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,600 | McMurray has the ability to drive into the top-10 at Michigan, having done it twice. He also can post 40+ point performances from a mid-tier salary, a great value is what he is |
| Paul Menard | $7,100 | Menard is my sleeper this week as the driver with the biggest positional differential in the field at +7.8. He scored 40 points here in June and should be able to do that again |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 | Cassill is in the budget-friendly portion of salaries but has posted three 36+ point races in the last four overall and had 22 points here in June. He fits nicely in cash or GPP |
| Michael Annett | $4,800 | Annett is another budget saver at just $4,800 but has gone over 27 point more often than not in races from Michigan in June since. He can give you value at the bottom end |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Joey Logano | $10,400 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,200 |
| Chase Elliot | $8,700 |
| Kyle Larson | $8,500 |
| Paul Menard | $7,100 |
| Michael Annett | $4,800 |
| Total | $49,700 |
Sunday’s cash game lineup is anchored by two of the three most expensive drivers in Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski at $10,400 and $10,200 respectively. Logano is an easy choice, despite being on the pole, as he dominated in June and has been the fastest again this week. Keselowski has the consistency wanted in a cash lineup with five straight top-10 finishes to his credit. Chase Elliot and Kyle Larson are next up based on their previous performances on the track. Elliot only has one race under his belt at MIS but went from 10th to second and is starting P5 this week. Larson is looking very strong at the moment and come close to a 50-point showing in the June race. Paul Menard is the sleeper pick of the lineup with the biggest positional differential mark in the field at +7.8 and with too much value at $7,100 he’s far too hard to pass up. Michael Annett rounds out the six-man group on an upswing with five 25-point races from the Firekeepers Casino 400 till now and 27 points in the June race. All told, there four drivers in the top-10 at Michigan in the roster and five in the top-15.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,700 |
| Joey Logano | $10,400 |
| Kyle Larson | $8,500 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,600 |
| Paul Menard | $7,100 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The GPP lineup for the Pure Michigan 400 leads off with Kevin Harvick, the most expensive driver on the board, but also the best driver to not have a win in the last two+ years here. He has four top-five finishes in the last five races and has 141 laps led. Joey Logano and Kyle Larson are next up in the roster providing consistency and high-upside potential needed in a GPP. Jamie McMurray has shown the flashes to be in the middle of a GPP lineup, especially at Michigan, where he posted a 40-point race last time out. Paul Menard is again in the lineup for the positional differential mark with there simply being only one other driver better than five in the field (save for Reed Sorenson and Chase Elliot in fewer races, three and one respectively). Landon Cassill rounds out the lineup on a strong note with three 36-point or better races in the last four races and 22 in the June race. Overall there are five drivers in the top-15 based on history of drivers in the field and four in the top-10.