Pennsylvania 400

Pocono Raceway

The complete outclassing of the field that Kyle Busch showed by leading 149 laps overshadowed the return of Jeff Gordon and the last race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Tony Stewart. For one of the very few times this season, one driver led the vast majority of the laps which really changes the field for the DFS game as everyone who missed drafting that driver, has almost no hope to equal the point total.

On Sunday, the schedule heads back to Pocono, the Tricky Triangle, for the second time in less than seven weeks as we head down the stretch run to the Chase for the Sprint Cup title. Last time here, June 6th, saw Kurt Busch nab his first victory of the season after coming up from ninth to lead 32 laps including the final one. Historically speaking, the second race at Pocono doesn’t necessarily go one way or the other in terms of having one driver dominate or a bunch split laps fairly equally. In fact the race last August had a car, Joey Logano, lead 97 of the 160 laps, as did the June race a year ago, however the August race in 2014 resembled more this June’s race than the 2015 versions. All of this goes to say that we can’t count on a laps led dominator for this week either.

Pocono is arguably the toughest course to drive on the circuit, and in fact it has separate rules in the NASCAR rulebook about what can and can’t be switched out of the car (i.e. transmissions), without having to go to a backup car like the driver would at other tracks. The relatively flat turns and only three of them, can prove to be a tough challenge, and unfortunately for us, the best driver on the track the last five races, Dale Earnhardt Jr., won’t be on the track again this week. In general, 88% of eventual winners have come from P5 or better in the starting grid here, and Logano has led the most laps, 144, in the last three years.

For those that base plays on certain teams, Joe Gibbs Racing had three drivers in the top-nine of qualifying with an affiliated driver, Martin Truex Jr., taking the pole. Richard Childress Racing also had three drivers in the top-12 for the first time since the August race at Michigan in 2014.

PLAYBOOK

DriverDraft KingsDescription
Kyle Busch$10,600Busch is coming off of two impressive performances and has shown good speed this week. He does however tend to move backwards at Pocono so a cash game play is risky
Kevin Harvick$10,400Harvick will be working with a substitue crew chief this week with Rodney Childers serving a suspension. He is still a solid play with two top-fives in five races at Pocono
Martin Truex Jr.$10,200Truex earned the pole this week after a great showing in qualifying. He has a win and two top-10s and the second-most laps led in the last five races here. GPP or cash is fine
Matt Kenseth$9,800Kenseth has a win and three top-10s at Pocono in the last five races. He had a good showing in June and with his last three races being 44 or better he works for either format
Carl Edwards$9,700Edwards has shown speed all week, barely being beaten for the pole. He has two top-10s in five races but has a tendency to move backwards. He could break out this week
Joey Logano$9,500Logano has lead the most laps, 144, of anyone in the last three years. He also have three top-fives in that span as well. He has good value at $9,500 this week for either lineup
Brad Keselowski$9,300Keselowski has an average finish of 9.4 and only three drivers can say that (in more than one race). He has also led 98 laps, third most, giving him great upside in both formats
Kurt Busch$8,900Busch came from ninth to win in June with a interim crew chief and has been the most consistent driver all season. Three top-fives and 80 laps led set him up for a cash play
Chase Elliott$8,700Chase did well in June, moving from 13th to 4th and leading 51 laps. The rookie has had a rough patch four of the last five races, but should turn it around here. GPP only
Kyle Larson$8,300Larson has a top-five and two top-10s in five races here. In the middle of the pack price-wise and producing five 40+-point races since the 600, he works for both formats
Paul Menard$7,100Menard hasn't been great at Pocono in recent history, but is coming off a string of three good races and had the fastest car in practice, third in qualifying. A GPP lineup fits him
A.J. Allmendinger$7,000Allmendinger has shown flashes of his talent with a top-10 and two top-20s at Pocono. He moved up 16 spots in June for one of his best races of the year. GPP or cash for him
Clint Bowyer$6,900Bowyer is a sneaky value pick this week for a guy who has a top-five, two top-10s and four top-20s in five races here. He is the only $6,000-level driver I like this week
David Ragan$5,800Ragan is a budget-play that can get you solid points. He has three top-20s in five races and is capable of 30+-point races. Ragan is a way to get position points in either play
Jeb Burton$4,800Burton is a part-time driver on the Sprint Cup circuit but did well at the June race and has moved up seven spots on average in his three races. Budget-friendly play

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

Draft Kings Cash 
Matt Kenseth$9,800
Brad Keselowski$9,300
Kurt Busch$8,900
Chase Elliot$8,700
Kyle Larson$8,300
Jeb Burton$4,800
  
Total$49,800

This week’s cash lineup has five drivers in the top-14 in past performance on the track and five in the top-15 starting spots. Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski anchor the lineup despite not being in the $10,000 range in salaries. They have upside and consistency which is what we are looking for. Kurt Busch gives us the defending champion in the lineup and the most consistent driver this season. Chase Elliot was very impressive early in the season and has only recently hit the skids a bit, but is coming back to a track that he led 51 laps on in June. Kyle Larson has been solid since the All-Star race and has five 40+-point races, including Pocono in June, in that span.  Jeb Burton is a part-time racer but posted 26 points in this race in June and has a solid track record of performing well.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kevin Harvick$10,400
Martin Truex Jr.$10,200
Brad Keselowski$9,300
Kyle Larson$8,300
Clint Bowyer$6,900
Jeb Burton$4,800
  
Total$49,900

The GPP lineup for the Pennsylvania 400 is anchored by Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. as two of the $10,000 drivers. Truex is on the pole for the race and should serve as a way to get laps led points, but could hurt in positional points if he doesn’t win. Harvick will be with an interim Crew Chief this week as Rodney Childers is suspended, but Kurt Busch won in a similar situation in June. Brad Keselowski is too solid of a performer to turn down a chance to put him in the lineup at $9,300. Kyle Larson and Jeb Burton are detailed above and rounding out the six-driver team is Clint Bowyer who qualified 28th but hasn’t finished worse than 22nd and has a top-five and two top-10s to his credit for $6,900.