Crown Royal 400

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Last week was an exciting race for the lobster in Loudon with Matt Kenseth taking the win when all said and done. Kyle Busch had a dominating day while leading the most laps but finishing eighth at the end of the day. The race was missing one key driver though with Dale Earnhardt Jr. sitting it out with concussion-like symptoms and Alex Bowman taking his place in the 88-car.

This week it will be more the same, though Jeff Gordon will replace Bowman in the Hedrick Motorsports Chevy. That’s right five-time Indy winner Jeff Gordon is back in a car after retiring last year after Homestead. I wrote about his capabilities in the Track Breakdown write-up so no more details are needed here.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway, IMS, is the birthplace of racing in the U.S. and is a special track from everyone to drive. It’s a 2.5-mile near rectangle that is relatively flat with just 9.5 degree banking in the corners in the NASCAR Sprint Cup set up. This leads to relatively challenging passing conditions, as the does the length of the lap as it will spread out the field pretty quickly. 82% of the winners have come from the top-five starting positions and Chevrolets have won 73% or 16 of the races run at IMS.

PLAYBOOK

DriverDraft KingsDescription
Kevin Harvick$10,500He has the fourth best finishing position (5.5), one top-five and two top-10's here and has led the most laps. He still gets the most points and that shouldn't change this week
Kyle Busch$10,400Busch has one of the last two wins at Indy and the other race was a runner-up finish. He is coming off a dominant showing at Loudon and is on the pole. Either play is fine
Martin Truex Jr.$10,300Truex Jr. has put together a strong season and comes to IMS looking to repeat his top-five finish at the track. A starting spot at 8th gives him a solid chance to move up quickly
Joey Logano$10,100Logano has the second best finishing position the last two races with two top-fives and has led 38 laps. Aside from the Quaker State 400, he's been on a big roll. GPP is better
Brad Keselowski$9,800Keselowski owns one of the best positional differentials at IMS and is on a big time hot streak in the last three races. Starting fifth puts him in a spot to win and roll up points
Matt Kenseth$9,600Kenseth has been strong at Indy in the last few years with the second best positional differential at 12.5. He has been hit and miss the season so a GPP is preferable this week
Denny Hamlin$9,000Denny has the best differential at +18 along with Blaney and has two top-five finishes. Hamlin either scores in the 20s or the mid-40s and up making him a strictly GPP option
Jeff Gordon$8,800Gordon is back from retirement for a two-week stint in the 88-car. He is a five-time winner including a win two years ago but the lay-off makes him a bet for tournaments only
Tony Stewart$8,400Last time on the track for the homegrown Stewart and he's looked in peak form the last few weeks. An $8,400 price tag makes him more than reasonable in either format
Ryan Newman$7,900Newman has had two 11th place finishes at Indianapolis the last two years but hasn't led a lap. He is capable of being fast here as a P6 in the starting grid shows though
Kasey Kahne$7,700Kahne has led the second most laps at IMS in the last two years (70) total but has a sixth and 24th place finish to show for his work. The up and down races make him a GPP play
Ryan Blaney$7,500Blaney has the best differential at +18 tied with Hamlin, though only in one race. He has shown he can carry speed through the season. A P17 start could give him a top-10 finish
A.J. Allmendinger$7,100Allmendinger has a solid +10.5 differential despite not finishing better than 18th place finish. He is starting P25 but a top-15 finish is very possible given his speed in qualifying
Clint Bowyer$6,900Bowyer has an average finish of 11th in the last two races (6th and 16th) and is starting 31st this week. There is value there at $6,900 but is a risky cash play but has upside
Cole Whitt$4,900Whitt has a history of moving through the field for a +7.5 better finish. He is one of the cheapest avaliable so he is the budget-saving upside pick this week at Indy

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

Draft Kings Cash 
Kevin Harvick$10,500
Kyle Busch$10,400
Brad Keselowski$9,800
Chase Elliot$9,200
Cole Whitt$4,900
Michael Annett$4,800
  
Total$49,600

The cash lineup is stacked with solid performers at IMS including a driver with a win and runner-up finish in Kyle Busch. Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Chase Elliot all give us nice plays for position points while not posting too much risk in the picks either. Cole Whitt and Michael Annett are budget plays with a solid history of moving through the field to get us cheap positional points. It is hard to chase laps led this week without a few dominating drivers in the category but playing the laps led leader in Kevin Harvick certainly will give a boost in those points.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kevin Harvick$10,500
Matt Kenseth$9,600
Denny Hamlin$9,000
Tony Stewart$8,400
Ryan Blaney$7,500
Cole Whitt$4,900
  
Total$49,900

The GPP roster also starts with Kevin Harvick as he sits back enough in the starting field to get positional points and possibly laps led. Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin are two plays for positional points as there are many drivers with better than +7 this week and these two could tally 30.5 in that category between the two of them. Tony Stewart is heading into his final race week at Indy as a driver and is starting P3 after showing speed this week. One last hoorah for Smoke should be in order at the Brickyard. Ryan Blaney has been fast most of the year and in his one race at Indy in Sprint Cup posted a +18 in positional differential, giving him the chance for a top-10 finish. Cole Whitt is the other carry over from the cash lineup and is a budget-friendly play here too. A pivot that could be made is Jeff Gordon and A.J. Allmendinger for Tony Stewart and Ryan Blaney, though I think a lot of people will play Gordon with him back in the fold.