Coke Zero 400
Daytona International Speedway
Saturday night under the lights for the third time, in a points race, this season is what we get treated to this week after seeing quite the finish at Sonoma a week ago. Denny Hamlin looked to be in prime position to lock up another win, when Smoke pulled off another one of his great moves, and passed Hamlin in the final hairpin turn to get his first win of the season, and quite possibly a spot in the Chase. Going from wine country to the beaches of Florida is quite the scenic and geographic change but that’s what’s in store this week.
Daytona International Speedway needs no introduction, it’s the birthplace of NASCAR and winning there is to win at hallowed ground. This will be the final time at Daytona for the 2016 season and based on practice times, some drivers can’t wait to get on the track and race. This race however, will differ from the 500 as the temperature has risen since February, which tends to make the track surface slicker and adds a looseness to the cars that wasn’t there in the relatively crisper air in February.
With the exception of the July 2014 race, the last several races at Daytona have been dominated by one driver leading close to half of the laps run, which really gives and advantage in laps led points, if we can pick the right driver for the task. 91% of eventual winners have started in the top-five in the starting grid but as the track data shows, that doesn’t mean drivers can’t move up through the field. JGR drivers dominated at Daytona to start the season with three in the top-five spots not including Martin Truex Jr., who’s Furniture Row Racing is in an alliance with JGR. However, Hendrick Motorsports tends to also do well at the famed 2.5-mile oval. Horsepower might play a bigger role this week in needing to make front of the pack passes and that is where the Toyotas have made their hay this season.
PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $10,600 | Earnhardt has been the guy to beat at Daytona for the last five races, and he will be again. The price tag might be prohibitive but with him needing a win I'm riding with him |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,300 | Harvick has one of the best positive position marks in the field but hasn't led a lap in the last five races. He has three top-fives in the last five races at Daytona |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,100 | J.J. has led the third most laps in the last five races and has three top-five finishes. HMS cars do well at the track and J.J. is a top option with his consistency |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,800 | Hamlin has the best average finish of any driver in the last three years at 3rd. He won the 500 by an eyelash but led 95 of 200 laps and the JGR team has been fast all season |
| Joey Logano | $9,700 | Logano has a win to his credit in the last five races along with two top-10 finishes. He hasn't finished outside of 22nd but has been up and down this year, so it's GPP for him |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,500 | Truex was the hard luck loser in February as Hamlin passed him at the line. His FRR Toyota has looked good this year so another great race should be in the cards for Truex |
| Kurt Busch | $9,100 | Kurt has 12 top-five finishes in his career at Daytona and two in the last five races. He seemingly hasn't missed a top-five this year and Saturday should be a repeat of that |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,900 | A 31st average qualifiying position belies his top-20 finishes. It has been a down season for him and needing a win, he could go all out at DIS. Qualifying will be important here |
| Chase Elliott | $8,800 | The rookie won the pole for the 500 before crashing out to finish 37th. His talent has shown in each race and at a mid-range price he's worth rostering for either cash or GPP |
| Tony Stewart | $8,300 | Smoke hasn't historically performed well at Daytona, but this is his last race ever at the track. Coming off a win and needing more points for top-30 status, he is a GPP play |
| Austin Dillon | $7,900 | A year removed from his bad crash at DIS, he has been good at the track and restrictor plate races. 4 top-10 finishes in five races mean he should be a cash and GPP play |
| Casey Mears | $7,000 | Mears hasn't had a great year this year, but this week he is a sleeper play with a +15 positional differential in the last five races. He has three top-10 finishes in the last 5 tries |
| Aric Almirola | $6,600 | Almirola won the July 2014 race that went 112 laps. He has three top-20 finishes at Daytona and ran the fifth fastest practice time on Friday morning. GPP here is the play |
| Regan Smith | $6,000 | Smith is one of the best position movers in the field at nearly +13, though in a smaller sample size. At $6,000 he is a budget-friendly play to get free points from moving up |
| Michael McDowell | $5,700 | McDowell has two top-20 finishes in three races, while starting at 30th on average. McDowell had a fast car at practice and finished 15th in the 500 after starting 39th |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,300 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,500 |
| Carl Edwards | $9,300 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,100 |
| Regan Smith | $6,000 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,700 |
| Total | $49,900 |
The Coke Zero 400 cash lineup is an attempt for a straight up points grab with consistency in the driver’s record. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Carl Edwards, and Kurt Busch have all performed as top-10 drivers for the most part at the track and were all in the top-10 at the Daytona 500. Regan Smith and Michael McDowell finish off the roster with two guys that have a history of moving up through the field and have run fast times before at DIS. The floor of these six should be ample to cash with the ceiling potentially driving up the finish in the standings.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $10,600 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,300 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,900 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 |
| Chris Buescher | $5,000 |
| Total | $49,900 |
This week’s GPP lineup is a swing for the fences type but with solid histories behind the picks. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the obvious pick for the lead spot as he is the best driver at the track in recent history and it’s not close. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Brad Keselowski all are high ceiling guys who have been good at the circuit and have shown serious speed at the track this year. Landon Cassill and Chris Buescher fill out the six-man lineup with guys who have high ceilings at cheap prices. Buescher in particular has been fast at both restrictor plate races but ran into some trouble that hindered his finishing positions, so if he can avoid them this time around, a top-10 finish is in his capability.