It’s time to head to Daytona International Speedway for the second time in the 2016 season for the Coke Zero 400 on Saturday July 2nd. Like the Daytona 500, restrictor plates will be in place at the 2.5-mile track however the weather will cause some differing track conditions this time around. The hotter, more humid conditions will create looseness in the cars that wasn’t there the first time around and thus certain drivers will be better to target.
Let’s take a look at the data to figure it out.
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 4.6 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 197 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 103.9 | -6.4 | 49.25 | 9.85 |
| Denny Hamlin | 25.8 | 3.2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 125 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 113.8 | 22.6 | 31.25 | 6.25 |
| Joey Logano | 21.2 | 11.4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 94.1 | 9.8 | 8.25 | 1.65 |
| Aric Almirola | 26.2 | 20.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 73.9 | 6 | 4.75 | 0.95 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 15.4 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 107 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 89.1 | 1.4 | 26.75 | 5.35 |
| Kevin Harvick | 21 | 12.4 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 85.6 | 8.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kurt Busch | 21 | 9.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 97.2 | 11.25 | 12.75 | 3.19 |
| Austin Dillon | 15.4 | 8.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 81 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.50 |
| Casey Mears | 27.6 | 12.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 71.5 | 15 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 15.6 | 21.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 2 | 77.3 | -5.6 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| Kyle Busch | 23.3 | 16.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 87.9 | 6.55 | 9.5 | 2.38 |
| Brad Keselowski | 31 | 22.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 78.7 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.70 |
| Carl Edwards | 16.2 | 24.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 73.6 | -8.4 | 2.75 | 0.55 |
| Clint Bowyer | 19.4 | 20.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 66.8 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Greg Biffle | 16.6 | 20.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 80.8 | -3.6 | 4.75 | 0.95 |
| Matt Kenseth | 13.2 | 19.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 80.5 | -6.4 | 13.25 | 2.65 |
| Kasey Kahne | 11 | 22.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 83.7 | -11.4 | 1.75 | 0.35 |
| Ryan Newman | 23.2 | 20.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 56.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Michael McDowell | 29.7 | 17.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 71.1 | 12.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Regan Smith | 25.5 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 68.7 | 13.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 26.2 | 23.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 61.8 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 23.8 | 27.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 3 | 61.7 | -4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Trevor Bayne | 20.8 | 27.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 59 | -6.8 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Kyle Larson | 22 | 30.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 3 | 59.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 18.6 | 21.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 16 | 32 | 0 | 77.3 | -2.8 | 7.25 | 1.45 |
| Jamie McMurray | 17.6 | 20.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 1 | 82 | 0 | 2.75 | 0.55 |
| David Ragan | 23.2 | 22.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 54.9 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.40 |
| Landon Cassill | 16.8 | 24.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 65 | -7.6 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| David Gilliland | 12.5 | 30.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 67 | -18 | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| Reed Sorenson | 18.3 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 60.9 | -8.7 | 1 | 0.33 |
| Michael Annett | 27 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 37 | 1 | 60.4 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Tony Stewart | 17.8 | 32.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 50.2 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 23.2 | 26.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 43 | 1 | 52.1 | -3 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 9.5 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 39 | 1 | 67.4 | -19.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 43.7 | -36 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Brian Scott | 24.3 | 30.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 42 | 1 | 60.1 | -6.03 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Josh Wise | 28.7 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 31 | 0 | 53 | 2.7 | 0.25 | 0.08 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 30.5 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 40 | 1 | 44.4 | -2.5 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Ty Dillon | 21.5 | 26.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 28 | 0 | 64.7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 22 | 27.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 34 | 2 | 54.8 | -5.25 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 17 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 1 | 36.6 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on Restrictor Plate Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 9.3 | 15.5 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 382 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 99 | -6.2 | 95.5 | 9.55 |
| Denny Hamlin | 23.4 | 11.2 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 153 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 102 | 12.2 | 38.25 | 3.83 |
| Brad Keselowski | 20.6 | 17.7 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 85.6 | 2.9 | 18.25 | 1.83 |
| Joey Logano | 21.5 | 15.9 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 89.2 | 5.6 | 21 | 2.10 |
| Aric Almirola | 23.9 | 21.1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 69.4 | 2.8 | 5 | 0.50 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 11.2 | 15.9 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 277 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 95.1 | -4.7 | 69.25 | 6.93 |
| Kevin Harvick | 21.2 | 11.6 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 91.5 | 9.6 | 7.75 | 0.78 |
| Clint Bowyer | 23 | 15.2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 69.8 | 7.8 | 1 | 0.10 |
| Kurt Busch | 18 | 12.11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 94 | 5.89 | 13.25 | 1.47 |
| Austin Dillon | 15.4 | 12.4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 76.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.25 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 22.4 | 17.5 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 2 | 80.7 | 4.9 | 1 | 0.10 |
| Kyle Busch | 23.3 | 16.5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 86 | 6.8 | 15.5 | 1.94 |
| Carl Edwards | 15.2 | 24.6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 66.8 | -9.4 | 4.25 | 0.43 |
| Casey Mears | 22 | 17.9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 67.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.15 |
| Greg Biffle | 19.7 | 20.5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 96 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 76.9 | -0.8 | 24 | 2.40 |
| Paul Menard | 14.5 | 18.4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 78.7 | -3.9 | 10.25 | 1.03 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- What isn’t there to like about Jr. at Daytona? Two wins and three top-five finishes in the last five races at the track as well as being the most dominant restrictor plate driver on the circuit. His price tag reflects that this week though at $10,600 and a top the price list. The last two plate races this year haven’t been kind to him, but he is the defending champion at this race from a year ago.
Denny Hamlin-Denny won the Daytona 500 in February by the smallest margin in NASCAR history, over Martin Truex Jr. He is the second-best driver at both Daytona and restrictor races behind Dale Earnhardt Jr., but his price tag doesn’t reflect that as it sits at $9,800 this week. With a win and five top-10’s in the last five races at the birth place of NASCAR and the second most laps led, he’s hard to pass up, but it’s his sterling +22.6 positional differential mark that makes him a great option.
Martin Truex Jr.- Truex Jr. was in line for the win at the 500 in February before Denny Hamlin completed his literal last second pass to win by the smallest margin ever. Looking at his stats at Daytona may not instill confidence but two things are working in his favor, firstly he is surely still steamed about the ending the last time they were at the track, and secondly, he is a very solid restrictor plate driver with four top-10 finishes in the last 10 races. $9,500 makes him a nicely affordable option but maybe not the lead driver on the roster.
Aric Almirola- Almirola won this race two years ago in July of 2014 and is coming in as a sleeper with an up and down year going. In three of the past four points races at Daytona, he has posted a top-15 finish after starting outside of that spot in the starting grid. At $6,600 he is a great cheap GPP option to try and get his season on track at a place he’s shown well at before.
Regan Smith- Smith is one of the biggest positive movers in the field at Daytona with a +12.5 positional differential in the past few races at the track. He also has shown well in the last five restrictor plate points races with five straight top-15 finishes and four of them being top-8 or better. At $6,000 he is a great, cheap sleeper pick for a cash or GPP lineup, though his floor makes him more appropriate for a GPP format. There are no wins or laps lead so a sellout for position points is what he represents.