It’s already Week 3 of the fantasy baseball season, and with it comes the next edition of the Fantasy Alarm Stock Watch. This week, I breakdown some players who have seen their stock rise and fall over the past week. In the Buy & Sell section, I highlight a pitcher in which I am going all in on and a hitter that any owner should at least consider trading away before he cools off.

Stock Watch - Risers

  • Brad Brach (RP, BAL) - The Orioles have placed closer Zach Britton on the 10-day DL with a forearm strain. That leaves the club in need of a replacement while he is on the shelf. All indications are that the team will turn to Brach to take over the closer role in Britton’s place. Brach has been one of the Orioles’ top relievers since joining the ball club in 2014, going 22-8 with a 2.61 ERA and 235 strikeouts over 220.2 innings. Through six games this season, Brach has struck out 10 over six innings while allowing just one hit.

  • Matt Bush (RP, TEX) - It was simply a matter of time before the Rangers moved on from closer Sam Dyson after he allowed 13 earned runs over 4.1 innings. With Dyson landing on the disabled list, the team will look to Bush to close out games. Bush made his major-league debut in 2016, going 7-2 with a 2.48 ERA over 58 appearances out of the bullpen. In those 58 games, Bush owned a 0.94 WHIP and struck out 61 over 61.2 innings. So far this season, Bush has appeared in four games, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.  He has struck out eight over 4.2 innings, but has also allowed two earned runs on three hits.  

  • Trey Mancini (1B/OF, BAL) - Mancini has been on fire to start the season, hitting .364 with five runs, four home runs and nine RBI over 22 at bats. The rookie got a small taste of the majors in 2015, appearing in five games in which he hit three home runs over 14 at bats. The power with Mancini is no fluke, as he reached the 20-homer plateau in the minors during both 2015 and 2016. Currently, there is no clear path to playing time for Mancini, as he is blocked at first base by Chris Davis and DH by Mark Trumbo, but Manager Buck Showalter has started giving him some run in the outfield. If he continues to play at this level, he will begin to force his way into the lineup more frequently than a few times a week.

  • Alex Wood (SP, LAD) - With the Dodgers announcing that Rich Hill was landing on the 10-day DL due to a blister, there became a need for a spot starter. Getting the nod this Friday will be Wood. When healthy, Wood has been an effective starter throughout his career, but health has been a constant problem for him over the past few seasons. In 2016, Wood appeared in 14 games (10 starts), going 1-4 with a 3.73 ERA. He owned an impressive 9.9 K/9 along with a 3.18 FIP, which would indicate he was a bit unlucky despite his solid ratios. His start Friday will not be a walk in the park, as the Dodgers will be on the road facing a Diamondbacks team that hits southpaws well and inside one of the most hitter friendly venues in the league. A successful start for Wood should lead to another go, as Hill is not known for making quick returns from the DL or staying healthy for very long.

Stock Watch - Fallers

  • Taylor Motter (SS, SEA) - Motter is enjoying a strong start to his 2017 season, hitting .321 with seven runs, three home runs and six RBI over 28 at bats. Unfortunately, his run as the Mariners starting shortstop will be coming to an end in the coming days with Jean Segura expected back off the DL on Friday, April 21. When Segura returns, Motter will resume his utility role in which he has already played both the infield and outfield this season. The occasional spot start is still likely in his future, but his everyday value in mixed leagues is coming to an end soon.

  • Adam Wainwright (SP, STL) - It has been tough to watch the decline of a once great starter, but after a down 2016 and a very poor start to 2017, many should begin to wonder just how much Wainwright has left in the tank. Through three starts this season, he is 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP, having allowed 11 earned runs on 24 hits over 13.2 innings. Wainwright had an ADP of nearly 200 heading into the season, so his stock was already pretty low. He is no longer a “must own” fantasy player at this point in his career, and to be quite honest, I really question if he is worth owning at all at this point. Looking deeper into Wainwright’s struggles, you will see a noticeable dip in velocity. His average fastball sits at just 90.3 MPH this year, which is the lowest it has been since 2012. That year saw him post a 3.94 ERA, a career worst until last season’s 4.62.

  • Devon Travis (2B, TOR) - Many were high on Travis entering the season, as the Blue Jays second basemen owned a 162-game average of 92 runs, 19 home runs, 85 RBI and seven stolen bases over his first two years in the league. Injuries, however, limited him to just 163 games over that two-year span. With Travis healthy to begin the year and slated to be the Blue Jays leadoff hitter, there was plenty to like heading into the 2017 season. Boy, has he disappointed. Travis is hitting just .105 over the first nine games of the season with two runs and two RBI across 38 at-bats. The Blue Jays have removed him from the leadoff spot, dropping him to the bottom half of the batting order. Travis is a much better player than he has shown so far this season, but the demotion in the lineup and his struggles have him trending down heading into Week 3.

  • Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) - It appears that the final few months of the 2016 season was nothing more than a tease from Buxton, as his start to 2017 has been absolutely dreadful. The Twins' outfielder is hitting .093 with one run, zero home runs, zero RBI and one stolen base while having already struck out 23 times over 43 at bats. The strikeouts were something fantasy owners were willing to put up with if he could manage to repeat his stellar 29-game sample from the end of 2016 which saw him hit .287 with 24 runs, nine home runs, 22 RBI and one stolen base. Unfortunately, that has not been the case and it is looking more and more likely that the 23-year old outfielder is destined for yet another demotion to Triple-A.

Buy or Sell?

James Paxton (SP, SEA)

I am buying into Paxton in 2017. Since making his major-league debut in 2013, Paxton has gone 18-15 with a 3.43 ERA while striking out 253 over 50 starts for the Mariners. During the past four seasons, Paxton has not made more than 20 starts in a single year due to injury, but there is no denying that, when healthy, the talent is there. Paxton made a career-best 20 starts in 2016, going 6-7 with a 3.79 ERA while striking out 117 over 121 innings. While on the surface a 3.79 ERA may not seem to great, a deeper look into his numbers would show you that his FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) was actually a full run lower at 2.80, meaning that Paxton was relatively unlucky at times last season.

This brings us to 2017 in which Paxton has gotten off to an impeccable start, going 2-0 with 22 strikeouts over 21 innings. He has allowed just eight hits this season and has yet to yield a run. His three starts have all come against divisional opponents, having faced the Astros twice and the Rangers once, both of which yield solid offensive talent. Paxton has also benefitted from playing in a friendly home environment, as he owns a 2.73 career ERA at Safeco Field. The A.L. West division, in its own right, is relatively pitcher friendly with both Angels Stadium and the Oakland Coliseum among the league’s best pitcher parks. Paxton entered the fantasy season with an ADP of 161, which means he was being drafted in the 13th or 14th round of most standard leagues. I was a fan of Paxton heading into the season, and with better health, he could easily turn into a Top-25 starter given his skill set.

Eric Thames (1B, MIL)

How about the start Thames is off to, huh? The Brewers' first basemen has hit six home runs over the last five games while going 10-for-20 with 11 runs and nine RBI over that five-game span. On the year, Thames is hitting .405 with 15 runs, seven home runs, 12 RBI and an OPS of 1.479. For those reasons, there is no greater sell-high candidate in sports right now. For fantasy owners, it’s likely impossible to fathom trading this guy, but let’s be realistic here for one second. Was this not the start everybody who drafted Thames had hoped for? His ADP heading into the season was 218, meaning in some formats he wasn’t even being drafted. Yet here we are, and Thames is among the top five players in fantasy baseball. 

Does it look like the power is legit? It sure does, but what is not legit would be his .417 BABIP, .595 ISO, 50-percent HR/FB rate or his 54.8-percent hard-contact rate. There is no denying Thames is on fire to start the season, but you would really be doing yourself a disservice as a fantasy owner to not see what kind of deal you can get for him. I’m sure not even his mother expects him to keep up this pace. Thames hitting 30-plus home runs this season is certainly possible, but it seems likely that the batting average will dip well below .300 and that his strikeout rate, which already sits at 22 percent, will eventually climb as well. Do yourself a favor and sell Thames while the iron is still red hot.