Stock Rising

Brad Hand (RP, SD)

The Padres made a trade which sent closer Brandon Mauer to the Royals.  This move should put Hand in line to take over as the new closer in San Diego.  On the season Hand is 2-4 with three saves and a 2.12 ERA while notching 66 strikeouts over 51 innings.

Sean Doolittle (RP, WAS)

Doolittle was part of a bullpen committee with the A’s but found himself dealt to the Nationals who were desperate for some backend bullpen help.  Doolittle has notched two saves since joining the team and has past closing experience. Given the Nationals lead in the N.L. East Doolittle should see plenty of save chances over the final few months of the season.

Adam Jones (OF, BAL)

Few hitters in baseball have been as hot as Jones has been over the last seven days as the Orioles outfielder is hitting .485 with 12 runs, four home runs, 11 RBI and an OPS of 1.439 during this span.  On the season Jones is putting together yet another typical season for the O’s, hitting .278 with 55 runs, 19 home runs, 51 RBI and one stolen base.

Aaron Nola (SP, PHI)

Since the beginning of June, Nola has been a stud, going 5-3 with a 2.49 ERA while striking out 68 over 61.1 innings. Things have been even better in July as Nola has gone 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA while striking out 33 over 28 innings. There was a time during this season where Nola had an ERA over 5.00 and owners started to cut bait but the youngerter always had solid peripheral stats and has turned his season around as teams make that final push towards the fantasy playoffs.

Stock Falling

Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD)

One week after fantasy owners lose Carlos Correa the game’s best starting pitcher is now lost for the next 4-to-6 weeks due to a back injury.  Kershaw has had issues with his back before and my guess would be that the Dodgers would in no way rush back their “”Ace” until he is ready and 100-percent healthy. For now the Dodgers will need to lean on Alex Wood who is having a career year for the team right now.

David Robertson (RP, NY)

The Yankees made a trade with the White Sox which sent Robertson back to the pinstripes however he is no longer in the closer role that he had as a member of Chicago.  With the Yankees he will be used as a set up man so those in holds leagues should look to add him however those looking for saves should pick up Anthony Swarzak who will likely close out games for the White Sox after Tyler Clippard blows up.

Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

Owners of Mazara have to be reeling at this point as the Rangers outfielder is hitting just .136 in the month of July with four runs, one home run and nine RBI. Over the last seven days Mazara is a paltry 0-for-22 with seven strikeouts.

Chris Owings (SS, ARI)

It seems like midnight might have struck for Chris Owings cinderella season as the Diamondbacks shortstop is hitting just .171 with six runs, one home run, four RBI and one stolen base in the month of July.  This follows up a month of June where he hit just .258 with 14 runs, five home runs, 17 RBI and two stolen bases.  On the year Owings numbers still look solid as he is on pace for a 20/20 season but he will need to get hot soon or his fantasy owners might start cutting bait.

BUYING

Jeff Samardzija (SP, SF)

The back of Samardzija’s baseball card is an ugly one right now as the Giants starter is 4-11 with a 5.05 ERA over 20 starts so far this season.  Sure those numbers are UGLY and you can’t take them off them board but the peripheral numbers that Samardzija has tells a story of a completely different pitcher.  

First off let's just put our cards on the table here.  Shark has a 3.59 FIP, 3.14xFIP and a 3.28 SIERA this season.  All of those marks would have him ranking among the top starting pitchers in baseball this season.  He also has a career best 9.68 K/9 and a career best 1.05 BB/9 so how on earth is he getting knocked around to the tune of a 5.05 ERA?  

Well, he is getting a bit unlucky with a career worst 17.4-percent HR/FB rate. Batters also have a .333 BABIP against Samardzija this season which is the highest of his career. His 64.8-percent strand rate is also the lowest of his career since becoming a permanent fixture in the starting rotation. So basically when guys get on base against Samardzija they are scoring and guys are getting on base often.

The numbers support an eventual correction and while he may only have 10-12 starts remaining this season he is certainly a buy-low candidate and in some leagues he is likely sitting out on the waiver wire where I would suggest you give him a look.

Selling

Cole Hamels (SP, TEX)

The Rangers southpaw had been solid since coming off the disabled list for the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA heading into his start against the Orioles and then we saw Hamels get smacked around for seven earned runs over 5.1 innings.  While I do not believe things are going to be THAT bad for Hamels moving forward I do not think that he is going to pitch a near 3.00 ERA either.  

On the year Hamels owns a 3.78 ERA but that is accompanied by a 4.85 FIP, 5.07 xFIP and a 5.16 SIERA.  As we get deeper into the summer months baseballs tend to fly and Hamels home park is among the better hitter parks as the heat and humidity rise.  

So far this season Hamels has gotten away with a career low 5.04 K/9 and a very lucky .229 BABIP against but those do not seem sustainable.  While trying to move on from Hamels after a seven earned runs performance is likely going to be tough I would at least float some offers out there and see if you can sell it as a blip on the road and not a sign of things to come.