Each time you login to the multitude of sites you play NBA DFS on, you should be looking for a few different things. Everyone and anyone can tell you that Russell Westbrook and James Harden are good plays, but doing research matters. Those same people can tell you to base your picks of points, rebounds and assists, but those are simply the basics. To become truly versed in the art of NBA DFS, you have to allow yourself to try new ways to be successful.
Your research can take you many ways, but looking at specific stats and categories help narrow down your search. I’m going to take the opportunity to break it down in list form for everyone, enjoy! There are definitely some others, but there is no doubt these are the five you should follow each and every time you build lineups.
1) Over/Under & Spread —> Here at Fantasy Alarm, we have all the tools at our disposal to figure out both. Targeting teams with high team totals in a close spread are ideal. Las Vegas’ projections aren’t going to be right all of the time, but they have a really good idea on which games will be close, which games will be blowouts and which games will score, or not score, a lot of points.
If the Warriors are squaring off with the Lakers, the spread will likely be quite large. It’s really hard to play multiple players from games like these knowing it’s possible they don’t play a full allotment of minutes. This is a huge part of your research and exactly the reason why we should, before we do almost anything else, check each games line.
2) Minutes —> Knowing a players minutes gives you a breathe of fresh air when constructing your roster. The more minutes = the more possessions = the greater chance of accumulating fantasy points. Minutes tie into a lot of the other important stats, but them on their own are critical. If you’re playing cash games, you obviously want someone who will give you a high floor of minutes; normally over 25, but to feel the most safe we prefer north of 30.
Something we should definitely factor into minutes is the potential for a blowout, if somebody is coming off an injury or older. Using the data we just compiled from Vegas, we know if a game is projected to be a blowout or not. If you plan on paying premium dollar for somebody who may not play in the fourth quarter — cough, any and all Warriors, cough cough — than you better expect them to hit or exceed value based on all the research you’ve put in.
3) Pace of Play —> This may be the most underrated stat of them all, but arguably the most important. The faster pace a team plays at allows them, and their opponents, more possessions. What that means is the more possessions offensively, the better chance that the player(s) in your lineup has at racking up more fantasy points. Selecting player(s) from teams playing at a fast pace is easy, but the real gold is found in the player(s) from the entire squad playing faster.
In 2016, the Brooklyn Nets played at the fastest pace in the NBA while the Utah Jazz played the slowest, and boy was it like watching paint dry in Utah last season at times. So when we would doing our research, it was almost ideal to target teams playing squaring off with Brooklyn. It was less than ideal using a middle-of-the-pack paced team against Utah because it wasn’t likely the two sides would score many points.
The addition and subtraction of players from certain teams could obviously change how teams played from last season to now. Our example up above was simply for your benefit and to see how it worked. Last year’s numbers will help slightly at the beginning of the season, but after a couple of weeks have been played out is when we really grasp who will lead the league in pace and who we will look to avoid targeting against.
4) Usage Rate —> When building our rosters, usage rate is a major stat to know. The higher the usage = the greater chance at DFS points. It’s very hard to trust players with low usage rates because they rely on others to make plays for them while they accrue their stats standing in corners, tipping in shots on the glass, etc.
It’s easier to use players with low usage rates in tournaments because the element of surprise and taking more shots are there. Low usage rate players, ESPECIALLY guards, are far more risky when it comes to cash games. Identify what kind of game you’re going to enter and use usage rates accordingly.
5) Defense versus Position —> In MLB DFS we have BvP, but for basketball it’s critical we know which teams struggle guarding specific positions. For example, if we know that the Celtics have struggled guarding the point-guard position, we should look to exploit that matchup on the other side of the game. There is a question you must first pose to yourself, however. You have to know if their will be a lockdown defender cross-guarding a different position than he normally guards due to how elite the player he’s going to defend is.
Now that it's been broken it down for you, things should have become clear as day -- as long as I've personally done a good job explaning eveyrthing to you. If you have any further questions on what is being said here, feel free to message me on Twitter at @The_Real_Grande.