Niese is on a bad run with 29 hits and 15 earned runs allowed in his last three starts. They’ve been tough matchups against the Cubs and at Colorado and Arizona. But he strikes out too few and walks too many to do much damage even in better matchups. He’ll go again on Monday in Cincinnati.
Arrieta now has quality starts in 25 of his last 26 starts, one the one non-quality start was a five innings, one run allowed start last time out. It’s hard to argue with that kind of run. That said, his strikeout rate is down this year, his walk rate is up, and his BABIP (1.76) and strand rate (95.9 percent) are simply unsustainable. But his trump card is that he manages contact so well as his hard hit rate allowed is consistently better than average. That’ll cure a lot of ills, but there’s no question that a few rougher starts has to be coming unless he gets his strikeout and walk rates back to where they were last year to mitigate some of the BABIP and strand rate regression. He’ll go again Sunday against the Nationals.
Rizzo is just on cruise control. More walks than strikeouts, .352 ISO, .416 wOBA, and he is not even getting the normal knocks to fall with a .206 BABIP. He’ll face Juan Nicasio on Wednesday against whom he is 0-for-7 lifetime, but ignore that.
Bryant is working on a nine-game hit streak and is hitting .305 for the year. He’s cut his strikeout rate down to 21.1 percent so far after striking out 30 percent of the time last season. A more disciplined Bryant is a scary thing. He’s four category contributor with the average now above average, and he could be a five-cat guy if his double-digit speed from last year shows back up, but he’s 0-for-2 on steal attempts this season. He’ll face Juan Nicasio on Wednesday whom he has faced only twice.
Severino has definitely been better than his 6.31 ERA suggests. He has a better than average walk rate and a ground ball rate over 50 percent, so there’s things to like, and that’s why his xFIP is 3.60. The strikeouts aren’t there which limits his value even when his BABIP and strand rate correct a bit, but better days should be ahead nonetheless. He’ll go again on Sunday in a tough matchup with Boston.
Zach Britton is dealing with an ankle injury, so O’Day picked up the save in his absence. For now it seems like Britton will not require a DL stint, so O’Day should see any save opportunities in the short term, but Britton should be back on the mound in the ninth sooner rather than later.
Those are home runs numbers seven and eight for Trumbo. He’ll need to keep hitting bombs at a good clip because his .403 BABIP will eventually fall and his .337 average along with it thanks to a typically high strikeout rate. He’ll face CC Sabathia on Wednesday against whom he is 5-for-16 lifetime with a home run.
Tillman is on a nice little roll through six starts with a 2.81 ERA. There’s some things to be worried about like his walk rate still being higher than average and the fact that he has allowed only one home run so far when he typically allows home runs at an above average rate. But the strikeouts are there and the jump in that stat is backed up by a higher swinging strike rate. He’ll go again on Sunday against Oakland.
With the two extra-base hits on Tuesday, Lindor now has seven on the season. His ISO is almost 50 points lower than what it was in his rookie season, and he needs a bit more power to really be a fantasy stud. He makes a lot of contact, and he appears to be a guy who’s going to sustain a higher-than-normal BABIP, but he may just be an average/speed guy. He’ll see Anibal Sanchez on Wednesday whom he has only faced twice.
When Napoli gets a start against a right-hander he’s not really a great option. He’s been a below average hitters so far overall, but he’s been above average against lefties as you would expect. The Indians will face right-handed Anibal Sanchez on Wednesday.