2013 Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Mariano Rivera

Posted by Michael A. Stein on 02/17/2013 | 1 Comments

Tags: Roy Halladay, Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Jose Bautista, Mariano Rivera, Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon, fantasy baseball, MLB, Injuries, Injury Report

It is now time to say those three words that baseball fans love more than anything during the cold and snowy winter – pitchers and catchers.  Spring training is upon us as we continue analyzing and evaluating players coming back from serious injuries or missed time in 2012.  We have spent the past several weeks looking at players such as Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez, Jose Bautista, and Roy Halladay.  Now let’s turn our attention to a relief pitcher whose comeback could provide great value in the always volatile saves category.  So without further adieu, here is the fifth installment of the Walking Wounded for the 2013 fantasy baseball season.

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Player Profile: Mariano Rivera (RP-NYY).

We can all remember that infamous day in Kansas City in 2012.  It was a normal day before a ballgame between the Yankees and Royals.  Mariano Rivera was in the outfield shagging fly balls like he did before every game.  And then one misstep on the warning track changed everything.  Rivera badly injured his knee requiring season-ending surgery which called into question whether he would retire or not.  Sure enough, Rivera didn’t want to go out that way and is coming back for at least one more season.

Rivera is unquestionably the greatest closer of all-time, but he has rarely been regarded as the greatest fantasy closer.  It is hard to imagine the all-time leader in saves not being regarded as the top ranked closer in fantasy baseball, but that is generally the truth.  Perhaps that is because he has only led the league in saves three times.  But there is a perfectly logical reason for that. During Rivera’s entire tenure as the Yankees’ closer, New York has had so many dominating teams that there were not as many saves opportunities as other closers were presented with. 

He has racked up an incredible 608 saves over the course of a 17-year career.  Without question he has proved to be reliable, dependable, consistent, and dominant.  But what can we expect from him in 2013?  After all, Rivera would be retired right now if not for that freak injury in Kansas City.  He did not want his career to end that way, so he is coming back to pitch at 43 years old and returning from a major knee injury.

Part of what makes Rivera so special is that he has maintained his success and dominance with basically one pitch in his arsenal – the cut fastball.  Even though he has lost some miles per hour over the past few years, he throws it with such precision and movement that it is still unhittable.  There is no reason to think he cannot continue to do the same thing in 2013.

Of course it remains to be seen whether there are any lingering effects from the surgery or the injury.  But Rivera’s delivery and mechanics are flawless, so you can be assured that he won’t suffer any setbacks due to poor habits being developed. 

If you are concerned about him “losing it” at age 43, think again.  Look back at the last decade when Rivera was already past his alleged prime.  Take 2012 out of the equation because he only pitched in nine games before the injury.  Since 2003, he has had only ONE season with an ERA above 2.00, and that would be the “abomination” of 3.15 in 2007.  He followed up that off year but putting up ERA’s of 1.40, 1.76, 1.80 and 1.91 from 2008-2011 respectively.  Yes those numbers were trending the wrong way, but they were all under 2.00!

Mariano Rivera will undoubtedly be ready for Opening Day and can be a real bargain for you in your drafts.  It is hard to imagine overlooking or even forgetting about him, but you can guarantee that he will be off people’s radar more this year than ever.  Let other fantasy owners spend early round picks or significant auction dollars on the studs like Craig Kimbrel and Jonathan Papelbon.  If you bide your time and maintain patience, you can likely grab Rivera in the later rounds for maximum value.  The Yankees will likely regress this year thanks to the makeup of their roster and the vast improvements other teams made.  But they should have no problem reaching 85-88 wins with Rivera getting to save almost half of them. 

If you have any comments or questions, please feel free reach me at michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com or on Twitter (@FantasyJudgment).

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