2013 Fantasy Alarm Readers Mock Draft #5 Analysis

Posted by Ivar G. Anderson on 02/09/2013 | 0 Comments

Tags: 2013, Fantasy Alarm, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Mock Draft, ADP

Mock draft #5 is in the books.  We had 15 participants that signed up, but unfortunately had 3 that autodrafted throughout the draft.  I as well as anyone know that life can intrude, but autoselection throws off the results just because the ADP results are still very wonky on the site on which we are hosting these drafts. 

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No lectures from me, but I would ask that if you sign up, you make every effort to attend, or else drop out so I can post for another person to take your spot.  Even so, this upcoming week's draft is reduced to 12 teams, and is a straight 5x5, with no bench and 23 roster spots.  You can sign up now at Mock Draft Central, just look for the Thursday night draft at 8:30 PM EST.  The password is Alarm 6.  Come join the fun, if you don't have anything more pressing on Valentine's Day.

Here are the picks that make me go "Hmmm..." as I look over the results from this week's mock draft.  The round by round results are contained in the chart at the end of the article.

Round 1-5

In a 15 team draft, depending on where you draft, you need to reach to get players you want.  Witness my grabbing Stanton with the 5th pick.  There was no way he was going to come back to me 20 picks later, and I wanted his power on my squad.  Despite what others may think about the lack of talent surrounding him in the Marlins' order, I still believe in Giancarlo for 35-40 HR in 2013.  In the third, I was glad to see Lee go to yackmann with the second pick, leaving Strasburg to fall to me.  I will admit I reached when I took Escobar in the 5th, I definitely could have waited to snag him later.  Lesson learned.

Round 6-12

In the sixth we see two Washingotn SPs go, and the surprise was that Gonzalez was not the first pick, but rather Jordan Zimmerman.  Maybe a bit of a scare with the allegations coming out of the Miami Anti-Aging clinic?  Huge SP run in the 7th round.  8 of the 15 picks were starting pitchers, and 2 others took RPs.  Of all those taken, I only have concerns about Halladay this early; I am just concerned we've seen his best and he is now on the downswing of his career.  Of course, Medlen seems due for some regression this season, too.  In the 8th, I really like the back to back picks of Hosmer and Prado, both undervalued guys that should produce good fantasy numbers for their owners this season.  Reddick as a 10th round pick may be somewhat disappointing, as I suspect he, too, will suffer some regression this season.  Later in the round, Estrada stands out as a great SP 2 to populate your rotation.  I, of course, reached for my boy Adam Dunn as I have been missing out on him in the mocks I've participated in of late.  In the 11th, I think Jonathan Niese will provide great value this year, but I am not taking Lincecum in any drafts until I find out what he is going to show in the spring.  In fact, I would much rather have the next pick for my staff, Kuroda.  I was glad to get VMart in this round as my catcher, except in CBS leagues, where he will only have DH/U eligibility.  Plan accordingly.  Harvey was a great pick at the top of the 12th, and if you have him in your keeper leagues, I think you will regret letting him go back into the draft.  Cuddyer is a fine pick in the middle of the draft, giving both 1B and OF eligibility to his owner.  

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Round 13-18

Josh Johnson and Homer Bailey are intriguing picks this round.  Johnson goes to a good team, but pitches in a tough division, and who knows if he can stay healthy.  Bailey finally lived up to his post-hype promise last season, but will it continue?  I am avoiding both unless they fall significantly further than the 13th round.  I really like what a value Bonifacio is this season, and I will take advantage of his speed in the late middle rounds every chance I get.  Ryu is a potential high value pick, but we've seen Japanese pitchers fail, and we have no track record on Koreans, so if you are willing to take a risk, you could well have an ace on your staff...or a stiff.  Personally, I am prolly going to select Minor over Ryu, and he went just 5 picks later in this draft.  A couple of OFs I like went back to back in the 17th, when Brantley and Ruggiano were selected.  While I do expect some regression with Miley in 2013, I still find him valuable here towards the end of the draft.  In fact, as we saw the past few seasons, pitching is available late in drafts, so don't waste too many early picks at the expense of offense.

Round 19-23

Heading into the last 5 rounds, things get interesting as there was no bench to fill here.  Thus, we see the drafters trying to fill open slots.  Even in a league without holds as a pitching category, I applaud the selection of Parnell, as I am not at all certain that Frank Francisco can hold the closer job for the Mets.  Morrison Logan is a risky pick, just based on his past injury history.  If he stays healthy, he provides some lineup help for my boy, Stanton.  Even with him being anointed the starting SS in Boston, I have seen little love for Stephen Drew.  Too many disappointments to trust him, I am guessing.  Without a team, Brian Wilson is a cipher but well worth a speculation pick in the 23rd round.  Pretty sure someone will sign him before teams break spring training in March.  And that's it for my comments about the fifth mock draft.

Do not be shy about joining our weekly mock drafts.  Despite the fact that some of the participants are "experts," they are, just like the rest of us, guessing about how the players will perform.  Plus, no reason not to take advantage of their knowledge by jumping in and perhaps sniping one or two of their "sleeper" picks.  Additionally, I have made some great friendships through participating in mock drafts, and continue to meet new draft addicts like me, which can be a distinct advantage if you ever need to fill an empty league slot at the last minute.

Remember to check back frequently for the 2013 Fantasy Baseball content that will be populating our site as we get closer to Opening Day.  I will be covering Starting Pitching again, and once I've finished the Starting Rotation Analysis, I will be posting the 2 Start Pitchers and Waiver Wire Pickup articles weekly.  If you ever have a question, about starting pitching or any other aspect of fantasy baseball, you can contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com, and I will try to get back to you within 24 hours.