2013 Fantasy Alarm Readers Mock Draft #2 Analysis

Posted by Ivar G. Anderson on 01/19/2013 | 2 Comments

Tags: 2013, Fantasy Alarm, Fantasy Baseball, MLB, Mock Draft, ADP

The second mock draft we are hosting on MockDraftCentral went off as scheduled last Thursday evening.  We had one person drop out and the computer took over drafting for the 3rd pick.  The results for that pick, and therefore the entire mock draft, were a little skewed, but I believe over all the draft was a good reflection of fantasy owners' expectations this early in the mock drafting season.

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I have set up the 3rd mock draft on MDC, and you can find it by looking for draft #197143.  You can also do a search on the draft site for a 12 team baseball draft being held on Thursday, January 24, 2013 at 8:30 PM EST.  Password is Alarm 3 (not the space between the letters and numeral).  I'd also ask that in addition to your team name that you somehow indicate your name so I get a handle on who is taking part in the draft; first name and last name initial are good.

Here are the picks that make me go "Hmmm..." as I look over the results from this week's mock draft.  Results by round are at the end of this post.

Round 1-5

My first reaction is to the order of selection of the top three SPs in the draft.  I cannot quibble with Kershaw going number one, although most drafts I have seen have Justin Verlander as the undisputed top Starting Pitcher.  The selection of Strasburg as the third SP is one I endorse, and I will be targeting him if he falls to the third round.  Posey was an auto pick, but that is where ADP puts him.  If you want Stanton, you best plan on a late first to mid second round selection.  In 15 team leagues, if you pick in the top half, he becomes a first round selection.  I believe that the shift to the NL for BJ Upton will benefit him, and going here at the end of the third round shows I am not alone in that perception.  Allen Craig was another auto pick, and while I worry about durability, it is where his stock has placed him early in 2013.  I was happy to pick up Pablo Sandoval in the 5th, but you could also wait and take one of the 3B selected later, such as Headley, Lawrie, Moustakas, or even Frazier or Middlebrooks.  Cespedis is going top 50 or so, and you need to keep this in mind.  He is not going to be a sleeper this season.  We saw a major pitcher run at the end of the 5th going into the 6th.  Pitching is deep again this year, and you've heard it before, but do not panic when you see a run start.  Instead, go the other way and grab some offense if the other drafters are grabbing pitching, or search out some pitching or position scarce offense.  Zig when others zag, to use a cliche.

Round 6-12

At the end of the 6th, I was happy to find Medlen still on the board.  He helped a bunch of owners make it to the championship last season, and one has to hope he can continue to shine this year, too.  I would have loved to go back to back with SPs here, but I missed out on Scherzer.  That 1-2 combo for a second and third starter would have been very tasty.  Utley went mid 7th round, and I think we will see his ADP rise as the draft season progresses, and if Chase can show that he is fully recovered from the injury that led to a partial season in 2012.  I am not entirely sold on Sale's ability to pitch all season as a starter.  I believe he went from 71 IP in 2011 to an astounding 192 IP in 2012, and he had an injury scare in 2012 to boot.  My plan this season is to avoid injury risks as much as possible.  I was glad to swoop in and snag Rafael Soriano following his recent signing with the Nationals.  That makes Storen a back up closer at this point, and that is a reason you should mock draft, not engage in actual drafts before the middle to end of March.  Always be aware of player movement and depth chart adjustments.  I took Josh Willingham in the 9th round, but if I had been savvy, I would have grabbed Victor Martinez here.  Lesson learned.  In the 10th, Redick went with the 9th pick, and I disagree that he will produce this year to rival his outlier 2012.  Mariano Riveria in the 10th, however, was a steal.  Keep you eye on him, as I cannot imagine his ADP will hover here once he shows he can close on a regular basis.  Wilin Rosario is getting some love, prolly based on his power potential.  In a 1 catcher league, you don't need to use an early pick on Posey or Mauer to do well at C; two catcher leagues are a different matter entirely, and if your league requires you to start 2 catchers you need to make sure to pick a top guy early.

Round 13-20

I like the infielders taken at the end of the 13th round, and although I am not a big fan of Chris Davis, even he is a solid pick here.  Salvador Perez is another C that is going mid draft that can fill your roster in one catcher leagues very nicely.  I am not sure why drafters let Doug Fister fall so far, when he to my mind is not that far off of Scherzer in terms of being a solid SP 2/3; not as many Ks, but a steady performer on the mound.  Tim Lincecum will not grace any of my teams if I have to take him in the 16th round.  I could be making a mistake, but he's been a disappointment the past two seasons and he now needs to prove himself to me before I will add him to my teams.  I do expect good things from Denard Span as a full time OF in Washington, especially with the recent trade of Morse to the Mariners.  I see no way Hellickson should have been available in the 18th round, but looking at the SPs that went before him, I cannot really argue too strenuously.  As I noted above, pitching is deep this year.  It is too bad Machado doesn't have SS eligibility this season, but depending on what happens with JJ Hardy, he could get dual position eligibility a month or so into the season, and getting him to round out your roster would be a great move.  The selection of Bruce Rondon in the 20th round could be a sneaky move that pays big dividends, or it could malfunction if the Tigers' rookie can't handle the heat of being a closer this early in his career.  He is a guy to put on your sleeper list as we see what the spring brings to the back end of the Tigers' bullpen. 

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Round 21-25

Not too much to discuss here.  I was surprised that Hardy stayed on the board until late in the 21st round.  Brian Wilson is a free agent to keep your eye on, as depending where he ends up he could be a nice source of saves.  Some late MIs going in the 22nd round, with Scutaro, Drew, Peralta and Rutledge (pencilled in as the Rockies' 2B) all there to help fill out your roster. 

Do not be shy about joining our weekly mock drafts.  Despite the fact that some of the participants are "experts," they are, just like the rest of us, guessing about how the players will perform.  Plus, no reason not to take advantage of their knowledge by jumping in and perhaps sniping one or two of their "sleeper" picks.  Additionally, I have made some great friendships through participating in mock drafts, and continue to meet new draft addicts like me, which can be a distinct advantage if you ever need to fill an empty league slot at the last minute.

Remember to check back frequently for the 2013 Fantasy Baseball content that will be populating our site as we get closer to Opening Day.  I will be covering Starting Pitching again, and once I've finished the Starting Rotation Analysis, I will be posting the 2 Start Pitchers and Waiver Wire Pickup articles weekly.  If you ever have a question, about starting pitching or any other aspect of fantasy baseball, you can contact me at ia@fantasyalarm.com, and I will try to get back to you within 24 hours.